This year’s floods failed to dampen the optimism of the Organic Growers Alliance spokesman Iain Tolhurst when he spoke to Commercial Grower last week.
Tolhurst runs an organic farm in south Oxfordshire supplying boxes to 400 local households. He has 17-18 acres of land and 20,000 sq ft of polytunnels, growing 85 different vegetable crops including potatoes, brassicas, alliums, carrots, parsnips, squash, sweetcorn, and some ‘garden crops’ like peas, beans and mixed salads, as well as some flowers.
According to him, the outlook is bright - particularly in the fruit and vegetable sector, and that trend has continued for several seasons now. He says there has been a sharp rise in sales at traditional organic outlets such as local markets, box schemes, farmshops and farmers’ markets. All areas, he says, are showing steady growth.
All except, perhaps, the major retailers, where he discerns a slowing in sales growth. “About three years ago the supermarkets lost out a very small percentage of sales and that loss has grown. Box schemes are chipping away at them,” he insists.
“People are becoming more savvy and looking for local produce. They question, in particular, the long-distance importers. That negates any advantage organics has. I know the Soil Association is going through a consultation process about air freight at the moment. People seem very keen to find out about the provenance of produce.”
But that question leads quite naturally into whether the UK could replace imported produce. And after the last few months’ weather, surely a doubt remains? Tolhurst believes a lot could be done to offset the unpredictability of the UK climate by investing in more R&D into varieties able to withstand the extreme conditions. He says it used to be, for instance, that this country hardly imported any apples before 1946-47 and seemed to manage well enough.
“With apples - and I know the organic top fruit problems have been dire - we should be looking at different varieties. Brogdale has 3,000 of them. The trouble is that consumer preference is driven by the supermarkets which means only two or three varieties predominate. There are a huge range of apple varieties we could grow to get a supply throughout the year. We need to bring some resilience into future products, look at varieties able to cope with extreme conditions, increase the amount of land used for production of human food - most land is used to produce animal feed - and localise food production and distribution, so reducing the carbon footprint. In terms of fruit and veg we import most from southern Europe.
“The whole food production system needs a major review. I don’t think anyone has done much work on this. Lots of ideas going around but nothing in R&D work. We need to get back to core funding on R&D to look at long-term problems.”
Part of this process is the perennial problem of educating the public to accept a wide range of varieties and the occasional blemish. Tolhurst says his box scheme customers are quite happy to accept produce which supermarkets might not deem ‘perfect’. “Supermarkets have indoctrinated the consumer over the last few years,” he says.
After the buzz generated by organics a few years back, things seem to be calming down somewhat. According to Tolhurst, this is down to organics becoming more mainstream and the hype dissipating. He does not see this as a problem for the future, though - in his view the movement needs to be aware of it and needs to reinvent itself from time to time to maintain the consumers’ interest.
How will this affect the growth of the organic market? Tolhurst says he would be surprised if the market did anything but grow. But he sees the growth slowing. “It depends on the economic climate. There could be a slowdown - there’s competition for land from biofuels, there’s the recent appalling weather, we’re seeing prices for food rise now. Prices have to go up. That’s the only way they can go. And there could well be a divergence of price between organic and conventional.
These are themes taken up by OGA chairman Alan Schofield, of Growing With Nature in north Lancashire. His 15 acres of organic vegetables is geared to the local market and he supplies boxes to 650 local households. The area was hit hard by the floods and his crops suffered. This was exacerbated by cold nights and lack of sunlight over a lengthy period. The worst hit were broccoli, cauliflowers and squash. He says the big problem will come in four to six weeks as crops that should have been prepared will not be coming through. “The big knock-on effect will happen in winter and spring next year,” he says, and a lot of growers are not insured for such weather. What do they insure for: rain or drought? The unpredictability makes decisions difficult and the insurance premiums are very high anyway.
“Organic crops are a little more vulnerable than conventional ones. The nutrients we have carefully built up in the soil over the years have dropped deep into the earth because of the rains. Organic growers depend on soil microbial activity.”
Schofield believes 2007 has been a wake-up call for the sector, especially for medium-sized growers. “I think this winter is going to be one where the industry sits down with the government and the grower bodies to try and sort things out. We have to investigate food security issues. Fears about food security have risen 100 percent because of the weather this year. We have got to move towards a more localised food production and distribution system.”
As far as prices are concerned, he echoes Tolhurst’s views that they are bound to rise: “I see all vegetables becoming more expensive and the conventional/organic differentials increasing. As a grower who has lost some 30 percent of his autumn crop I am trying to recoup some of the money on the produce I am selling. But there is a limit.
“My business has averaged 10-12 percent growth a year over the last three years, mostly on customer recommendation. We want to sell as much as we can locally, but I envisage a slowdown in that growth rate because of the economic conditions. A few of my long-term customers have cancelled - not because of the produce or the service, but simply because they have to keep a closer watch on their finances today. Organics as a whole could be hit.”
Organic Market Report 2007
Last week, the Soil Association published its Organic Market Report 2007, providing a glimpse into the fortunes of the sector worldwide. In its executive summary the report says global sales of organic produce increased by £2.6 billion to £19.3 billion last year. Retail sales of organic products in the UK were worth an estimated £1.9 billion - representing a 22 percent increase since 2005. The retail market for organic products has grown by an average of 27 percent a year over the last decade. The report states the UK organic market is now the third largest in Europe after Germany and Italy.
Research by Mintel revealed that more than half of respondents purchased organic fruit and vegetables within the previous 12 months.
And financial results from a Defra-funded survey of organic farms in England and Wales showed the majority of farm types experienced better financial performance than comparable non-organic farms in 2003/04 and 2004/05.
The number of enquiries made to the Organic Conversion Information Service (OCIS) in England and Wales increased by 30 percent and by 63 percent in Scotland. Farmers and growers requested 877 organic advisory visits in 2006 - 44 percent of which took place in Wales.
In January 2007, there was a total of 613,470 hectares of organically managed land in the UK - representing little change since January 2006. This now accounts for approximately 3.5 percent of the UK’s total agricultural land area. The area of in-conversion land in the UK increased by 40 percent, with all countries seeing substantial growth. But fully organic land area declined by seven percent over the same period. In January 2007, there were 4,639 organic producers in the UK, representing an annual increase of seven percent. Organic holdings now represent approximately 1.6 percent of all farms in the UK.
Retail sales of organic products through box and mail order schemes increased by an estimated 53 percent - from £95 million in 2005 to £146 million in 2006.
An average of 66 percent of the organic primary produce sold by the multiple retailers was sourced in the UK, representing no change since 2005 - vegetables (73 percent UK sourced), apples (12 percent UK sourced).
The report states that in 2006, significant opportunities existed for growers at all scales of production as the UK organic fruit and vegetable market remained undersupplied.
The report goes on to say that while supermarkets still dominate organic food sales, the 53 percent growth in sales experienced by organic box schemes and other direct routes during 2006 was more than double that of the major retailers.
In her foreword to the report director of the Soil Association food and farming department Helen Browning says: “More and more people want to buy locally grown, seasonal, unprocessed, organic food that also delivers a fair price to the farmer and grower. Championed and pioneered by the Soil Association and organic growers alike, organic box schemes reflect a growing grassroots movement that links everyday food choice to environmental action. Ian Tolhurst’s organic box scheme near Reading demonstrates just what the combination of organic food production and local distribution can deliver: produce that is 90 percent more energy efficient than non-organic produce grown and delivered to a supermarket. His business supplies fresh organic produce to 400 customers each week, yet has a total ‘carbon footprint’ no bigger than the average UK household.”
The report says the area of organic land under horticultural production increased by 10 percent to 9,704 hectares in the year to January 2007. Alliums and root vegetable areas increased 23 percent, green vegetables, salads and protected crops (three percent), potatoes (10 percent) and fruit (14 percent). The area of organic herbs remained stable and the area of flowers and ornamentals decreased by 29 percent in the year to January 2007.
The area of land under organic vegetable production increased by 10 percent between January 2006 (6,627 hectares) and January 2007 (7,282 hectares). Opportunities existed for growers at all scales of production as the UK organic vegetable market grows.
In its Organic Market Report for 2007, the Soil Association says the UK has experienced the wettest June since records began, with a devastating impact on organic potato harvests. It is becoming increasingly difficult for growers to plan successions of crops due to unpredictable temperatures, and if these climatic trends continue, the traditional planting calendar will change, with a reduction in normal winter crops. The unseasonably warm winters have also led to a reduction in demand for traditional hearty winter vegetables, as consumers instead choose salads and Mediterranean style produce.
It says: “Land shortages continued to constrain the development of the market as small parcels of land are too expensive and buyers are competing with horse owners for grazing. Consequently, it is difficult for new growers to enter the sector and, with the organic market for arable and livestock still under-supplied, there is little incentive for farmers to risk diversifying into horticultural crops.
“There may be opportunities for growers on large farms or estates to rent or share land, but this process requires long term co-ordination and despite the market opportunities there is still a severe shortage of skilled growers, making it difficult to recruit.”
In the fruit sector 2006 saw demand for organic fruit continue to rise. A TNS report stated that the market for organic fruit increased eight percent by value in the year to March 2007. The area of land under organic fruit production increased by 14 percent from 1,568 hectares in January 2006 to 1,784 hectares in January 2007. However, there was still a huge undersupply of UK organic fruit, due in part to the long conversion period required for organic fruit trees and bushes.
Defra figures August 2007
The total area of organic and in-conversion land in the UK as at January 2007 was 619,783 hectares, according to Defra. This changed little from a year ago and represents 3.5 percent of the total agricultural area (excluding common grazing) in the UK. Of this figure, 20 percent was in-conversion and 80 percent was fully organic.
Since January 2006 the fully organic area has decreased by seven percent from January 2006, the area of land in conversion has risen by 41 percent.
The area of fully organic or in-conversion land in England and Wales has increased this year although the area in Scotland and Northern Ireland has decreased by around five percent since January 2006. Most of the reduction in area in Scotland is due to a decrease in organically certified permanent pasture.
Since January 2006 there has been an eight percent increase in the number of producers and growers and a 13 percent increase in the number of processors. The largest percentage increase in the number of producers was in Scotland (15 percent).
There were increases in the number of processors or importers in every region. The largest concentration of processors and importers in the south west and south east of England remained at around 48 percent of the England total.
Of those registered producers, 4,204 (91 percent) recorded a return of production of crops or livestock.
