One leading French apple grower-shipper is sceptical about the European crop forecast released by the World Apple & Pear Association (Wapa) at the Prognosfruit conference in Italy, held in August, claiming there will be lower volumes than predicted.
Blue Whale said some growers doubt predictions that Europe is set for its second-largest apple crop in a decade, arguing that unseasonably warm weather in June and July across many Mediterranean and eastern European regions is likely to reduce overall yields.
Wapa forecasts the 2015-16 EU apple crop to be around 12 million tonnes, four per cent down on last year, but 11 per cent up on the five-year average. Its data predicts a strong crop in Poland, Italy, France, Portugal, Slovenia and the Czech Republic, with declines expected in Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, Hungary and Greece.
But Marc Peyres, Blue Whale export director, believes actual European volumes will be much lower. “Prognosfruit figures are not reflecting reality,” he says. “We had a particularly hot summer across much of Europe, and this will have a bearing on quality and therefore availability.”
Prognosfruit figures forecast French production, which accounts for 13 per cent of EU apple output, at 1.6m tonnes – higher than last year but in line with 2013. Yet Peyres believes this too is optimistic.
“In Spain, Italy and France a large proportion of the Gala crop is grown in the Mediterranean region, which experienced particularly hot weather in June and July,” he explains.
“So I think there will be huge consequences in terms of availability. I think volumes will be down on forecasts.”
Unreliable Prognosfruit figures are misleading and potentially dangerous, Peyres argues, and something needs to be done to improve their accuracy. By gearing up the industry to expect a bumper crop when volumes aren’t there can destabilise markets, he says.
“If the Prognosfruit forecast can’t be accurate, perhaps it’s better not to have it at all,” he says. “Or maybe we should work on quantities for the fresh market only, like they do in the US. This year the European forecast for the fresh market was 7.7m tonnes, before taking into account the hot summer weather: this is 300,000 tonnes less than last year. And in western Europe, the fresh market volumes are forecast at 5.1m tonnes – just average for the last seven seasons.”
Recently, the weather across France has cooled, and harvesting started as normal in the south-west during the second week of August.
Early volumes experienced very strong demand and high prices in all markets thanks to no overhang from southern hemisphere fruit.
“The start of the season has been very strong – prices haven’t started this high in many years, and the longer-term prospects look good too,” says Peyres.
Overall, French apple quality looks better than last year, he says, and the weaker euro against the pound sterling and US dollar means France can offer more competitive prices and still receive better returns.
Peyres expects demand for French apples in Europe to remain strong throughout the season, thanks to the predicted drop in northern European crops. But he is anxious about the stability of the Asian market going forward after the August bombing of a shrine in Thailand and the continued weakening of the Chinese currency.
“Tourism may suffer in Thailand as a consequence of this tragedy, affecting the economy. Meanwhile the currency situation in China may deteriorate, affecting demand there too,” says Peyres. “It’s too early to know how the Asian market will play out. France can be pretty certain to export less to China than last year, though, since last season US apples were banned, and this year they’re back.”
He says Asian markets haven’t looked this unstable since the 1997 financial crisis and therefore advises a cautious export approach to the region.
Back in Europe, Peyres notes growing demand for ‘newer’ varieties, such as Pink Lady, Fuji and Gala, alongside dwindling consumption of traditional apples like Golden and Red Delicious, and Granny Smith.
He says European growers have no choice but to replace old for new if they want to stay financially viable. “Over the last two seasons, overall returns to growers haven’t been high enough. That’s a concern for the future. However, we consistently see high prices for new varieties and low prices for old ones across all markets,” says Peyres. “Growers have to give consumers what they like, not what they are producing traditionally. That is the only way to improve consumption.”
Blue Whale’s Pink Lady season starts in November. And, as Peyres is careful to point out, anything can happen between now and then.
“Every season is different and every season is interesting,” he says. “At the moment everything is going well and the prospects look good, but who knows. All we can do is hope we have a good season. One thing is for sure, though, and that is last September was a disaster, and this one is looking so much better.”
French exports pick up the pace
Avignon-based French apple supplier Cardell Export began its apple harvest later than usual in mid-August, due to weather conditions, reveals the company’s Daniel Corbel.
Initial demand for the firm’s Gala crop was strong, but Corbel says Cardell’s overseas customers were aware that the weaker euro could mean more competitive French apple prices, resulting in greater demand. But he adds that other factors always come into play where prices are concerned.
Europe’s extended ban from the Russian market continues to affect EU apple suppliers, who must find alternative outlets, he says.
And he notes that it is too early to know how the potential lifting of UN sanctions on Iran might affect the future global apple trade.
“Every season is different and we will have to as usual adapt our strategy to keep our customers satisfied and keep looking for new ones,” Corbel says.
