Latest research from the Met Office has shown that emissions of CO2 will need to be reduced to close to zero by the end of this century, if a rise in the mean global temperature beyond 2°C is to be avoided.
A temperature rise of no more than 2°C is widely acknowledged as the safe level to avoid dangerous climate change.
This research, revealed at the Ensembles - A changing climate in Europe symposium at the Met Office in Exeter this week, is the culmination of more than five years of research from 66 institutes across Europe, led by the Met Office Hadley Centre and funded by the European Commission.
Paul van der Linden, who is the director of the Ensembles project, told freshinfo: “In an unmitigated scenario, looking in the near term 20 years from now, Spain will be an average of 2°C warmer and by the end of the century, 4°C warmer. Commensurate with that, there will be changes in precipitation and in the summer there will be a marked drop by 25 per cent by the middle of the century and by 35 per cent or higher by the end of the century. This will be the same in the whole Mediterranean region. There are clear implications for crops.”
The Ensembles project finding follows the development of a new climate mitigation scenario constructed using the same principles that will be adopted by the next Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change assessment review, using concentrations of greenhouse gases as a starting point. Scientists have then been able to establish what level of emissions would need to be achieved so as to restrict global temperature rise.
John Mitchell, director of climate science at the Met Office and Ensembles co-ordinator, said: “This latest research emphasises the necessity to make drastic cuts in emissions as quickly and as soon as possible if we are to avoid dangerous climate change, and highlights the importance of the negotiations that will take place in Copenhagen in December.”
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