Climate change is already causing shifts in disease patterns in UK crops, a major technical review undertaken by Adas and commissioned by agri-chemical giant BASF has found.
The study predicts that climate change will bring about further gradual, although significant, changes in the spectrum of diseases that damage crops and that in the majority of cases the severity of disease outbreaks will increase.
Dr Peter Gladders from Adas Boxworth studied the impact of increasing temperatures and redistribution of rainfall under climate change and looked at how these changes will influence disease incidence and severity in brassicas, carrots, lettuce, onions, potatoes, strawberries and top fruit.
He said: “Temperatures are predicted to rise by 0.3-0.5 per cent per decade, and so increase by 2ºC by 2050…. at Boxworth over the last 40 years, the mean temperature has risen. A more important factor influencing disease infections and development is rainfall.” More variable rainfall, with wetter winters and drier summers and more heavy rainfall events and thunderstorms are predicted.
Gladders said: “At Boxworth the long-term mean rainfall levels are similar for every month, but within any one year there can be large variations in the monthly rainfall. Current weather variation already encompasses the range expected under climate change.”
Most diseases affecting brassicas are likely to be exacerbated while in potatoes the potential for blight may be less severe in warmer drier periods, but this could be overshadowed by increased blight activity earlier on.
Robert Storer, field vegetable product manager for BASF, indicated that the outcome could mean higher costs of production. He told freshinfo: “There is a chance production costs could increase. Shifts in disease patterns will have an impact on how growers have to do things. This could mean greater use of inputs and therefore greater production costs. Some of what we are talking about seems to be happening already. Professional growers are already showing great attention to detail, they might just have to change their focus. These changes are not happening overnight, but they are happening.”
