All the industry collaboration in the world will not enable Tesco to double its English top-fruit sales in three years unless its suppliers have access to the desired volume of fruit.
On the surface of course, Tesco is being extremely supportive of the domestic industry. But that is just one element of its approach. Who would doubt that Tesco wishes to doubles its English apple sales to take volume out of the market for its high street rivals, for instance?
Production is not about to double, far from it, so do growers see this as a major opportunity, or a sign that retail supply options will reduce yet further.
Undoubtedly Tesco’s existing suppliers have considerable new plantings in place to meet some of the additional demand. So can we really expect the non-Tesco suppliers in the industry to happily co-ordinate their plans to suit their competitors?
It is highly likely that the English apple category supplier picture will look different by 2008, and there must be some members of the 80% Group who wonder whether they are speeding up their own progress or hastening their downfall.
Of course growers can switch marketing desks in an attempt to follow the volume - everyone is aware of that and it is a regular occurrence as well as a necessity in harsh reality of the current marketing environment.
Consolidation is another inescapable factor and many more growers may be forced to join forces if they are to have any chance of adapting to the new supply challenges. I hope there are twice as many English apples and pears in Tesco in three years, but not at the expense of an industry.
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