Although it is early to provide concrete predictions for the upcoming Washington apple crop, there is already some insight as to what to expect for the 2007/08 season.
The usual period associated with potential hail damage has passed without any significant losses, although some abnormally warm weather in July and early August has slowed some growth. Most hand thinning has been completed, although somewhat later in the season than desired due to tight labour supplies.
The August 1 estimate issued by the state WAC has been as close as zero to eight percent over and under in the last five years.
The 2006/07 crop will finalise in the 98.9 million carton area, but the 2007/08 crop is expected to be down three percent from the previous season. A combination of light return bloom and cold weather in the spring is expected to reduce primarily the Red Delicious crop.
While there will be some increase in the volume of the larger sizes there should be ample supplies of the top grades (Premium, and Washington Extra Fancy) as most of the older strains have been removed and replaced with the new varieties.
Type looks to be on a par with the excellent crop of 2006. The August estimate for fresh apples in 2007 is 29,9m with 35,8m cartons shipped in 2006.
Golden Delicious will bounce back after a very short volume in 2006 due to considerable russet in some areas as well as a shortage of labour causing some growers to shift labour resources to more valuable crops.
Expected production for the 2007 season will return to more normal numbers with smooth finish this year and expected harvest will be 10.8m (10.3 in 2006). Sizes are expected to peak in the 72 to 100 prime size range. Early indications are for a smooth lenticel free finish this year.
Indications are for a substantial increase in Gala production this year with estimates of some 17.2m cartons with 15.8m in 2006. The first harvest of Gala in early districts would appear to be August 16 with volume harvest the week of August 20.
Quality and size appear to be normal with a good mix of all sizes. Many of the older Gala strains have been removed and replaced with new higher colour types.
Granny Smith production will be near 2006 levels as plantings have stabilised and production annually is hovering in the 14 million carton range. Sizing this year will be somewhat larger than 2006 with peaks in the 80-100 range. Supplies will be adequate for both domestic and export market demands throughout the marketing year. August 1 estimate is 14.35m cartons compared with 14.2m in 2006.
Fuji will be somewhat lower in the supplies due to off bloom in some of the larger production regions that were severely damaged by hail in 2006 and failed to bloom well. Supplies should be adequate for domestic as well as export demand through the middle of the marketing year. Forecasted crop is 11,8m with 2006 at 12.6m.
Honey Crisp continues to increase in production with many younger blocks reaching production. Jazz and the other club varieties continue to increase slowly but will not exceed demand this year.
Cameo, Jonagold, and Braeburn are virtually the same as 2006. The other varieties show an increase of 1.1 million cartons reflecting the continued increase of ‘niche or club’ varieties.
Cripps Pink should bounce back this year with the season being about six days earlier and barring late frost damage as occurred last year. August 1 estimate is for 2.4m compared with 1.9m in 2006.
Organic production is estimated at 3.3m cartons of all varieties this year.
Red Delicious 525,000
Goldens 405,000
Granny 410,000
Fuji 450,000
Gala 780,000
Cameo 33,000
Cripps Pink 270,000
Jonagold 37,000
Braeburn 235,000
Others 130,000
The weather thus far has been ideal for both sizing and finish of the fruits. Sizing is expected to be near historical norms with smooth finishes on all varieties. l
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