We are increasingly warned about the impact we are having on the Earth’s climate system, and on November 17, the most compelling case for anthropogenic warming was presented within the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The report gave overwhelming evidence how climate change is making an impact already - from the enlargement and increased numbers of glacial lakes, to the poleward and upward shifts in ranges in plant and animal species. Between 1970 and 2004, the global emissions of greenhouse gases, weighted by their global warming potential, have increased by 70 per cent, and these emissions are predicted to keep on growing over the next few decades.
Climate change is undoubtedly a serious issue, and this is reflected in the research profile at Warwick HRI (a department of the University of Warwick). Before discussing this broad profile of work, the terms impact, mitigation, and adaptation should be clarified. These three terms are frequently misused within climate change literature, one being used in place of the other as if they were the same thing. In reality, they have very different meanings: impact relates to predicting the future climate and the potential effects on people and their environment (e.g. will cauliflower production still be viable in Lincolnshire?); mitigation relates to reducing the production of greenhouse gases (e.g. developing local produce markets to reduce food miles), or enhancing their capture (e.g. sequestering carbon in soils); and finally, adaptation relates to making changes, in response to the climate, to moderate harm (e.g. build reservoirs) or taking advantage of opportunities (e.g. growing new crops).
Impact and mitigation studies have been high on the agenda for Defra for a number of years now. Defra helps to fund the Met Office’s Hadley Centre, which uses supercomputers to predict the climate of tomorrow, and also funds the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP). The Hadley Centre and UKCIP, in conjunction with the Tyndall Centre, developed the infamous UKCIP02 climate change scenarios, which predict that the future will bring hotter, drier summers, milder but wetter winters and more extreme weather events. The work carried out by these organisations is crucial if we are to increase our understanding of the potential changes to the UK climate and to answer crucial questions like: why did the summer of 2007 buck the trend and lead to one of the coolest and wettest summers on record; and, more importantly, can we expect the frequency of such events to increase in the future?
In relation to climate impacts, Warwick HRI is considering how pest populations will change: which species will thrive and which will decline? Will life cycles change and will control strategies require revision? We are also increasing our understanding of the potential impact of extreme events, such as severe drought or prolonged wetness. Averages are frequently used when discussing the future climate; we are told that average annual temperatures across the UK may rise between 2°C and 3.5°C by 2080.
But how useful is this information to the grower? What we really need to know is how variable weather patterns will be, in particular the extremes. A few hot days, in an otherwise average year, at just the wrong time in the crop cycle, could make the difference between a good yield and total crop failure. But what are these critical times and thresholds? Warwick HRI is addressing these questions by simulating daily weather conditions in the future and calculating the risks to specific crops - the closest thing to a crystal ball one can have.
It is also studying how climate change might affect agri-environment schemes, and how measures implemented under these schemes might be adjusted to ensure that they continue to promote biodiversity.
In relation to mitigation, Warwick HRI is researching ways to reduce the world’s reliance on fossil fuels. It is assessing the practicality and cost-effectiveness of a range of technologies which may reduce energy consumption or make use of alternative energy sources. In addition, the facility is investigating whether it can breed oilseed rape for more energy-efficient biofuel production, by reducing its nitrogen fertiliser requirement, as nitrogen fertilisers consume large amounts of energy in their manufacture.
Impact analysis and mitigation research will undoubtedly continue to be essential. However, it is now widely accepted that it is too late to stop man-made climate change. Consequently, there has been increased emphasis on adaptation to climate change. Ian Pearson, the former minister of state for climate change and environment, said at the UKCIP User Forum in March: “The choice is no longer between mitigation or adaptation; mitigation and adaptation must go hand in hand.”
But why should growers think more about adaptation than they have done in the past? Surely this is second nature to people who have always kept a keen eye on the weather? Unfortunately, until recently the climate has changed relatively slowly and the pace of adaptation has equalled this rate, but we now know that the climate will change so rapidly, irrespective of how much mitigation we do, that we will have to make radical changes to our behaviour - at a global, national and individual level. Can we adapt the way we grow the crop or adapt the crop itself? Can we identify a new crop that will sustain or even increase the viability of UK crop production? Can we change policies to promote sensible adaptation and, in particular, avoid maladaptation?
Defra has identified that the first logical step in the adaptation process is to make everyone aware of the challenge, and has launched the ‘Tomorrow’s Climate, Today’s Challenge’ initiative (www.farmingfutures.org.uk/). The second step is to rise to the challenge. One of our biggest problems is going to be water - the rain falls in shorter and heavier bursts and the summers are getting hotter and hotter. Arguably, one of the most sustainable ways to address the water issue is to improve the water-use efficiency (WUE) of crops. Warwick HRI is carrying out WUE research to identify the multitude of plant genes involved in water use, which is useful for breeding drought-resistant plants, and how abscisic acid regulates water deficit stress in plants.
Adaptation is a complex subject and depends on many variables, for example crop type, location, market conditions and the policy environment. In a unique project, we are consulting with a wide range of industry experts to determine what the real climate change challenges are and how they might be addressed through adaptive activities. These adaptive activities may involve relatively quick technology transfer or knowledge transfer activities, or more complex, longer term solutions, such as additional research or policy changes.
Each of the topic areas discussed here will be developed in the following seven articles. Hopefully, by the end of the series, you will have a good grasp of the climate change research agenda at Warwick HRI, and agree that UK agriculture is in a strong position to adapt to the opportunities and threats of climate change.
Visit www.go.warwick.ac.uk/climatechange/ for more information.
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