Released by DEFRA in late June, the UK Climate Projection report - UKCP09 - reinforces the view that climate change in the UK will result in milder, wetter winters, producing an increased risk of flooding, hotter and drier summers and coastal erosion. Inevitably, this will have a significant impact on the UK fresh produce sector, with far-reaching consequences.
The study showcases three scenarios for climate change, based on high, medium and low global levels of greenhouse gas emissions.
Currently, the world’s emissions are at the medium stage, although there is a risk they could still be heading for the high level. The predictions suggest that by 2080 - under the medium emissions scenario - the east of England could be faced with increased temperatures, meaning a 41 per cent rise in rain on the wettest day and a sea level rise in Southwold of 37cm.
Secretary of state for environment, food and rural affairs, Hilary Benn, claims the projections will allow the country to ensure there is a resilient infrastructure in place in a number of ways, including adjusting ways of farming for drier summers, protecting new power plants and maintaining the supply of drinking water. “There is no doubt about it - climate change is the biggest challenge facing the world today,” says Benn.
During the April budget, chancellor Alistair Darling outlined an extra £1 billion to help combat climate change by supporting low-carbon industries, as well as £525 million for offshore wind projects over the next two years. Britain has also committed to cut carbon emissions by 34 per cent by 2020.
According to National Farmers’ Union (NFU) president Peter Kendall, many farmers are already adapting to the effects of climate change and are using water more efficiently when irrigating crops.
He adds that industry already produces a wide range of bioenergy such as wood, straw and energy crops for electricity and heat, as well as anaerobic digestion.
“We are seeing a green energy revolution and every farmer and grower should have the opportunity to contribute,” Kendall says. “We can play a pivotal role in combating climate change by using our inputs more efficiently and developing business opportunities that help to reduce emissions.”
Farming Futures - the communications project run by Forum for the Future - is designed to explain climate change to farmers and land managers and encourage pro-environmental behaviour change.
Claire Wyatt, Farming Futures project manager, says the UK Climate Projections will help build knowledge and the ability of farmers and growers to adapt, by giving them a better understanding of future climate projections, with clear time-scales and high-resolution maps. “Growers will be better equipped to make sound business decisions and investments needed to ensure a more resilient UK economy and society,” she says.
Farming Futures is a collaboration between the NFU, the Country Land & Business Association (CLA), the Agriculture and Horticulture Research Forum, the Agricultural Industries Confederation (AIC) and DEFRA. The project started solely as an awareness-raising tool, but it is now tasked with encouraging behaviour change across the sector, and helping to link up the many climate change-related activities.
Wyatt predicts that there is likely to be growing pressure on growers to deal with rising input prices, greater water scarcity and changing pests and diseases. However, on a more optimistic note, she says that there are also going to be major opportunities to supply more local markets and grow different crops, such as exotic items.
“People are generally much more aware of the need to eat fruit and vegetables, and are asking more questions about where their food comes from, so we see this as a big opportunity for UK growers to supply this changing market,” she says.
According to the Met Office, seasons are already changing and milder winters and the early onset of spring have lengthened the growing season.
Certainly, a hotter than normal summer already seems to be underway, with temperatures reaching 32ºC in south-east England at the beginning of July. Having endured two wash-out summers in 2007 and 2008, the higher temperatures are being welcomed.
However, the fresh produce sector is keenly feeling the effects of the shift in weather patterns and a lack of rainfall earlier in the year caused concern for summer brassica and new potato growers.
At this year’s Re:fresh Conference, Chris Hutchinson, Spitalfields Market Tenants’ Association chairman and the Fresh Produce Consortium’s (FPC) wholesale division chairman, brought up the issue. He asked: “What areas will still be large producers of fresh produce after climate change? What percentage of land will become desert?”
Professor Simon Bright, director and head of department for Warwick HRI, says climate change will affect food production through the occurrence of extreme weather events, both in the UK and elsewhere.
“A key research priority should be to optimise the efficiency and sustainability of UK food production by providing crop varieties adapted to future growing conditions, including reduced water availability,” he tells FPJ. “Climate change may also provide new opportunities - for example, novel crops and their cultivation will require further research.”
Bright says significant wastage occurs in the food supply chain both pre- and post-harvest, and climate change may result in increased damage caused by both endemic and exotic pests and diseases. He adds that a priority is to develop integrated control systems, optimising the use of pesticides, biologicals, host resistance and agronomy.
Global temperatures have risen 0.12°C since 1990 and the UN’s chief panel on climate change estimates that the risk of increased severe weather will rise if the global average temperature increases by 1-2°C above 1990 levels.
Some scientists say that certain countries are already victims of climate change, and prolonged drought and devastating bush fires have beset south Australia.
Elsewhere, Africa’s environment ministers have requested more money and support from rich nations ahead of December’s UN climate change conference in Copenhagen.
The UN says Africa needs at least $1bn (£617m) a year to manage the effects of climate change, such as sinking islands, and changing farming techniques.
Experts forecast that by 2020, some African countries may see farm harvests drop by up to 50 per cent because water will be scarce, as the continent relies on rain for its agricultural production.
Closer to home, Soil Association Scotland held its first climate change event in mid-May. The day’s programme covered a range of topics, including managing soil to improve structure and fertility, optimising crop productivity through fertility building and improving carbon sequestration through the conservation of soil organic matter.
Now, the fresh produce industry has a new tool to measure and help reduce carbon emissions following the launch of a tailor-made carbon footprint calculator in April.
Produced by the FPC and environmental consultants Brown & Co, the online calculator allows fresh produce companies to assess their emissions and to identify where they can make improvements.
“By having a clear understanding of where carbon emissions are found within the industry, and the extent of those emissions, the fresh produce sector can target environment-friendly initiatives where they are needed most, and also counter any exaggeration of the environmental impact of the production and distribution of fresh fruit and vegetables,” says Nigel Jenney, chief executive of the FPC.
“Having online access to an effective and recognised carbon footprint calculator is a key way in which the fresh produce industry can help to promote itself and reject misleading arguments.”
The vast majority of climate change mitigation comes down togood business management, says Wyatt. “The best advice is to look at your business and identify opportunities to make efficiency savings through things like nutrient management andenergy efficiency,” she advises.
Wyatt is also confident that there are lots of opportunities to invest in new technologies that can save money and time, such as precision farming tools. Investing in farm renewable energy generation, such as biomass or biogas production, could also boost the coffers, she says.
Wyatt singles out Philip Pearson, an innovative tomato grower in Cheshire, who has used combined heat and power and anaerobic digestion systems to improve the efficiency of production, through recycling energy, CO2 and nutrients on the farm, and produces electricity for the local town.
“In the next few years, we expect to see some winners, but there will also be extra pressures and challenges for farmers relating to climate change, so we would like to see more farmers preparing their businesses for likely future impacts,” Wyatt says.
“Adaptation is only part of the climate change story for agriculture.Many of the leading organisations are doing alot to preparefarmers for the changes we will see- extreme weather events, drought,new pests and diseases, etc - but it is important to address mitigation too, like reducing greenhouse gas emissions from farming.”
Meanwhile, although much of the debate on climate change has concentrated on carbon dioxide emissions, methane - a greenhouse gas that is 21 times more harmful than CO2 - is responsible for around 20 per cent of post-industrial global warming.
Contractor Global Renewables is urging the public and local authorities to consider the impact of sending large amounts of food waste to landfill.
“People can reduce their ‘methane footprints’ simply by throwing away less food, but to make significant cuts in methane emissions we encourage local authorities to consider the whole spectrum of waste recovery techniques - some of which actually offset total emissions of carbon equivalents,” says managing director David Singh.
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