At a time when the UK industry usually looks forward to home-grown, new-season brassicas and root vegetables, the weather has brought production to something of a standstill and growers are calling out for some sunshine. And if the colder than usual temperatures continue, many are concerned that contracts will not be met.
Until a week ago, the much-coveted UK asparagus crop was in full swing, with harvests being cut every day. Now, due to cooler temperatures, some growers are leaving three to four days between harvests. “Up to two weeks ago when day temperatures were hitting 15-16°C, we couldn’t harvest enough asparagus,” says one asparagus and rhubarb grower. “But the rain came and now it is 3-4°C in the evening and the crops have shut down. This weather is entirely the opposite of what spring crops want.”
Sweetcorn crops are also experiencing difficulties. The temperature drop hit just as plants were germinating, a situation which needs conditions of at least 16°C. “We are just waiting for the soil to warm up again,” says one insider. “The overlap between Spanish and UK crop is now becoming drawn out and the quality of Spanish product is struggling to hold up. It is going to be hard to get the right quality that our customers want over the next couple of weeks. We are still experiencing a touch of ground frost, which is unusual at this time of year.”
On the positive side, brassicas have mostly avoided any bolting issues that are commonplace at this time and winter cabbages have been present on the marketplace longer than usual, satisfying consumer need for winter warmers in the cooler temperatures.
The carrot industry has also seen some positive effects to the late spring, with old-season crop lasting a lot longer than usual - although this may be to the detriment of new-season carrot yields in June. “We are just finishing the old crop and the weather is keeping them in good condition and quality is strong,” reports Martin Evans, chairman of the British Carrot Growers’ Association (BCGA). “The current crop is storing well, but this may affect the coming season. We don’t think there will be a gap in supply at the moment and hope that the old crop will be sufficient to hold us in good stead.”
The main carrot-producing areas of Suffolk and Norfolk will come on stream in June and although it is likely that the crop will be slow to mature, Evans believes that poor quality will not be an issue.
“Sunshine is needed, that’s for sure, but at least demand is not a problem,” he continues. “We have had a very strong first quarter for carrot sales and consumers are certainly eating more veg. We are keen to promote carrots as barbecue food, but we really need a barbecue summer for that to prove our point. Consumers in the UK are still eating carrots in the traditional way - like with a Sunday roast, etc - which works well now, but we need to have consumers eating them in all different kinds of ways, throughout the year.”
The BCGA’s promotional campaign will focus on the back-to-school market this year, while still highlighting the start of the new season with events and publicity. “There is a big change in consumption when children go back to schools and consumers settle down to a regular eating pattern again,” says Evans.
So it seems that it is a waiting game for many in the industry, while larger producers face the extra expense of covering spring crops that should be flourishing at this time.
“We have been here before,” says one grower, “and it is just a case of waiting for the spring crop to come alive again. We just hope our customers are sympathetic.”
But the industry is optimistic that the summer will pan out well, eventually.
“We could do with some warmer weather to keep the timings right,” says one insider. “We will have to see what happens in the next few weeks, but as it stands the industry is a fortnight to three weeks behind the normal spring weather. It will level out but it will put pressure on the outdoor crop in the meantime.”
UK ONION PUNDIT REFLECTS ON QUARTER
UK fresh produce company Nationwide Produce monitors onion spot prices on a monthly basis. Here, group managing director Tim O’Malley highlights the folly of trying to forecast the rollercoaster ride that is the onion job.
If I had a pound for every time over the last few months I’ve been asked why the onion job has gone through the roof, I would have made almost as much money this year as an onion grower. I have had around 25 years of trying to accurately predict the onion job and I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion that it is the most difficult vegetable crop of all to forecast.
But it is reassuring that I am not alone. Back in October, the cream of the UK onion industry gathered once again for a committee meeting of promotional body British Onions. Bearing in mind the post-harvest date, I think we were all expecting a fairly accurate assessment of the season ahead. Looking back now at the minutes of the meeting, the overall consensus was that the UK onion job was going to be oversupplied and prices disappointingly low. We had good reason to come to this conclusion: yield was expected to be slightly above average, as we had experienced a pretty good growing season. The main crop harvest had been exceptionally good as it had been one of the driest on record. Crop going into store was dry and clean as a whistle; therefore, expectations were that packout yields would be high - which has proven to be the case.
UK production was expected to be around 400,000 tonnes, which is about average. The two main onion producers in Europe - the Netherlands and Spain - were expected to both have healthy crops of over one million tonnes each and Polish production was expected to be around 700,000t. Prices at the time were depressed on the back of a bumper early set crop and it all seemed to be pointing to a disappointing year. In March last year, the average price was £120/t, which is about the norm for that time of year. And yet, by the end of March, with at least two months of the season ahead of us, spot market prices for bulk, 60mm-plus industrial onions were heading towards £350/t. Why?
Whether we like it or not, the Dutch call the shots for the onion job. They have by far the largest and busiest port in Europe, in Rotterdam, and are huge exporters of onions around the world - therefore, they tend to set the price. The Dutch grow more than 1mt, but consume only around 100,000t. By comparison, the UK industry grows 400,000t and domestic consumption is around 700,000t. In broad terms, we make up the shortfall every year with approximately 100,000t each from the Netherlands and Spain and the remaining 100,000t in equal proportions from Poland, Chile and New Zealand. The Dutch have exported onions to Africa for a long time but this year, demand has been exceptionally strong, particularly from Senegal, due to a growing population and economy and also better infrastructure. Last year, the Dutch had disappointing demand from Russia; this year, Russian demand has been strong mainly because Poland and Ukraine - traditionally large exporters to Russia - have struggled. Ukraine’s production was below average this year and in Poland, temperatures plummeted in January to as low as -34°C. At that level, everything grinds to a halt and the irony is that the Poles started to import from the Netherlands. But perhaps the biggest surprise importer this year came from South America - Brazil, to be precise. Rumour started to spread on the onion vine that Brazil had lost around a third of its crop due to heavy rain. This is a country with a population of 200m and onion is a key ingredient in their national dishes. Spain and the Netherlands soon spotted the opportunity.
And there lies the problem with trying to predict the onion job. It’s a truly global commodity. Onions travel better than any other vegetable. Also, the onion is an irreplaceable base ingredient. Onions are an essential and frankly, whether they cost £50/t or £400/t, it is still only a relatively small percentage of the overall cost of a meal. To the consumer, onions are not a price-sensitive product, although this message seems to have been lost on the retailers.
So where will it all end this season? I have seen seasons like this before when it’s been over-hyped (particularly by the Dutch) and then it falls out of bed at the back end. I have also seen it continue to climb, although rarely above £400/t (for UK industrial onions).
The truth is you will only ever get anywhere near an accurate forecast of the onion job if you have detailed data to hand of onion supply and demand for every corner of the globe.
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