According to the local press in Florida, Indian River growers believe the USDA's crop forecast for grapefruit released two weeks ago is 4million-6m boxes too high. The agricultural statistics service at the department forecast a 48m box crop on October 12.

But growers are furious as they fear that a high estimate at the beginning of their season will have a downward pressure on pricing that will be hard to shake off as the campaign progresses.

The USDA makes at least seven estimates over the course of the season, but the October figure is generally held to be the most important for this reason. Last year it put the 2000 crop at 50m boxes at the outset of the season when growers said it was nearer 46m. The department later revised its figure down to 45.9m, but this was too late in the season to have any impact on prices.

Now growers in what has become a beleaguered industry in recent seasons are calling on the USDA to either review the way they arrive at forecast figures or to dispense with the service all together.

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