After last week's UK general election, three party leaders and just about every opinion pollster fell on his sword.
Speculators short of sterling on Thursday night would have felt inclined to do likewise when they saw the exit poll result. Having seen the previous two general election results correctly foretold by the exit poll, investors did not hesitate; they marked the pound a cent and a half higher against the euro and the US dollar and it made proportionally-similar instant gains elsewhere.
Because the result was so far adrift from investors' expectations, the reaction was greater than it would have been to almost any other outcome. Sterling advanced by 2.4 per cent on the day and those gains made it the leader over the holiday-shortened week. The pound picked up a net four US cents and two and a half euro cents.
As sterling prospered, the NZ dollar panicked. It was hurt by Wednesday morning's employment data, which fell well short of expectations. They were not bad numbers: unemployment was steady at 5.8 per cent and the number of people in work went up by 0.7 per cent in the first quarter of the year.
But New Zealand only publishes its jobs data four times a year, therefore three months' anticipation was riding on the figures and the punishment was three times as severe as it might otherwise have been.
The events to watch this week are Monday's argument between the Eurogroup and Athens, Tuesday's scheduled repayment by Greece of €750m to the IMF and, on Wednesday, the UK inflation data and the Bank of England's quarterly Inflation Report.
A low print for inflation and a cautionary tone from the Bank of England governor could be expected to undo at least some of the good work done by sterling in the last six days.
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