Up to 3,508 jobs could be lost in the UK fresh produce industry over the next 12 months, as the sector continues to consolidate.

This is the verdict from the third edition of 2008 Plimsoll Analysis, which coincides with a British Chamber of Commerce survey suggesting unemployment could rise by up to 300,000 over the next 12 months as the UK economy experiences a “prolonged and bumpy landing”.

The latest Plimsoll report, which individually analyses each of the UK’s leading 1,200 companies, has found that 3,508 jobs could go as companies seek to get costs in line with sales.

As many as three quarters of the firms analysed will need to reduce their head count, and one of the largest firms could see up to 806 jobs lost alone. Almost a fifth of the companies surveyed are already running at a loss, and companies need to aim for at least £321,000 sales per employee in order to stay competitive.

Of the 1,200 firms individually assessed, 200 companies, rated as danger, need to consolidate immediately: these firms, all currently losing money, are heavily in debt and are exposed to their lenders. They need to take drastic action to shrink their business, otherwise their survival is in question. Some of these firms could see 30 per cent of the workforce go as they try to stay in the market.

Some 443 companies need to only “tweak” their business, said the report. Making small but simple changes to their business will see them maintain their profitability and improve their stability. Building up their strength is vital as they aim to stay competitive.

Some 557 companies are currently leading the market, with sales per employee figures of well over £371,000. These super-productive firms are generating over £11,000 worth of profit per employee. These businesses are well equipped to see out the next 12 months in good shape, and are almost certain to prosper from their weaker competitors’ demise.

David Pattison, Plimsoll senior analyst, said: “The 200 companies we have identified as in danger need to act now if they are to survive. It is very important they review their entire business cost base and take action now to significantly reduce their outgoings. While job losses are undoubtedly bad news for any company, such decisive action may be called for to guarantee the ultimate survival of the business - even if this means the business is 30 or 50 per cent smaller than it was.”

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