December retail sales are forecast to exceed £13 billion for the first time ever as shoppers count down to Christmas
Supermarket sales are forecast to exceed £13 billion over the four weeks of December for the first time ever as Brits prepare for Christmas, Kantar predicts.
The market data and analytics firm published this forecast after releasing latest retail data, which showed that take-home sales at the grocers increased by 2.5 per cent over the four weeks to 1 December 2024.
Monday 23 December is likely to be the single busiest day for the supermarkets this year, although there are clear signs that shoppers are already stocking up their cupboards, Kantar said.
The analyst noted that the cost of an average Christmas dinner for four has risen to £32.57, up by 6.5 per cent, largely driven by the price of turkey and Christmas vegetable staples.
Meanwhile, wider grocery price inflation remains relatively stable at 2.6 per cent, with grocers prioritising low pricing over multibuys, it said.
In terms of supermarket performance for the 12 weeks to 1 December, Britain’s largest grocer Tesco achieved its highest market share since December 2017 at 28.1 per cent, up from 27.4 per cent in 2023, Kantar said. Its sales grew by 5.2 per cent.
Sainsbury’s share increased by 0.3 percentage points to 15.9 per cent, and spending through its tills was 4.7 per cent higher than last year.
The UK’s two biggest grocers now have a combined market share of 44 per cent.
Online retailer Ocado boosted sales by 8.7 per cent over the period, achieving a 1.8 per cent share of the market. It outpaced the total online market which grew by 3.6 per cent, with shoppers spending £4.2 billion on the channel overall across the 12 weeks.
Lidl was the fastest growing bricks-and-mortar grocer, with sales up by 6.6 per cent. Its share climbed 0.3 percentage points to 7.7 per cent. The retailer’s footfall stepped up by nearly 10 per cent in comparison with a year ago.
Spending at Morrisons rose by 2 per cent, and it now takes 8.6 per cent of the market. Its average transaction value nudged up by 4.8 per cent over the 12 weeks, helped by strong online sales.
This was significantly ahead of the average growth in basket spend across the grocers as a whole, which edged 0.7 per cent higher to £24.51 this period.
Waitrose grew slightly ahead of the market, with spending increasing by 2.6 per cent. It maintains a 4.4 per cent share.
Spending at Aldi grew by 2.1 per cent, and the retailer retained 10.3 per cent of the market.
Iceland also held its share of 2.2 per cent, and Co-op’s portion of the market is now 5.5 per cent. Asda has a 12.3 per cent market share.
