It is still too early to be certain, but if the Florida citrus season ends in the same vein in which it began it could well be a memorable year for the Sunshine State.
The total citrus crop is expected to rise by as much as 20 per cent with record levels of oranges (252 million boxes) predicted by the USDA. This year's grapefruit crop is also forecast to rise by 8.5 per cent on last year's 42 million boxes ñ ensuring a steady supply of produce into the UK.
Reports indicate an improvement on last year's grapefruit growing conditions when a dry spring and a wetter than average summer produced a slightly smaller crop with larger fruit. This year the Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC) anticipates a larger crop with fruit available in a variety of sizes. “The season started two weeks later than usual,” confirms the FDOC's Mike Burge, “and we had ample rain to get us through the first half of the year which was unusually wet.”
The maturity rate for the fruit should reflect a more normal season in 2003-04 with the pack out rate expected to be eight to 10 per cent higher than last year. Both external and internal quality is expected to be excellent and the combination of a larger crop and increased pack out rate should lead to a 15 per cent increase in fresh grapefruit exports for the 2003-2004 season.
But, says John Giles, divisional director at Promar International, high volumes are not necessarily enough to secure the future of the Florida citrus industry. “The Florida citrus sector has dominated the international trade in grapefruit to the EU for as long as anyone can remember,” he says. “However the next few years will see something of a make or break situation evolving as the US production and export marketing effort comes under renewed pressure. Florida has always played to its strengths of huge volumes and excellent quality, which has meant that to date, it has been able to see off any potential pretenders to its crown as the number one supplier.”
Although threats from other suppliers such as Cuba, Honduras and Turkey have not materialised in the way that might have been expected, Giles does warn against complacency. “This does not mean that the Florida sector can rest easy,” he warns. “Indeed the reverse applies. Too many of the macro factors appear to be working against the Florida industry to allow it any sense of complacency in the next five years and beyond.
“Volume of supply alone is not good enough. Despite bullish forecasts on total sendings, what the Florida sector has to do is to look at the long-term picture, which is starting to look very different indeed. Value is now the key determinant of a successful season and the messages coming from the US packers here are very different. We would expect to see continued fall out in the number of significant producers and packers in the next few years.
“Not least from a macro point of view,” he continues. “Production in the northern hemisphere has been falling over a period of time and is now down from 3.5 million tonnes to 2.7mt with the US share of this volume down from 2.5mt to 1.9mt. Any growth in the overall production of grapefruit is coming from the southern hemisphere at the moment, and EU production is unlikely to increase to any significant extent in the near and/or even mid-term. Turkey is the only source of supply that from a structural point of view is seeing any growth in overall plantings of fruit.
“From the work we have been doing in the international citrus market, we expect overall production to continue to grow in the next five years or so to as much as 10 per cent of the current total, but the most worrying point is that there are few signs of any significant increase in consumption. US exports have been falling too, and are down over a mid-term period from around 500,000t to 360,000t.”
According to US publication Produce News, it is the concern over falling grapefruit consumption that has inspired the FDOC's current campaign entitled Sass in a Glass. “Sassy is not a word that translates well in other countries,” Burge admits, “but we are trying to get across the fact that grapefruit has attitude. In the UK we're promoting more of an image than the word itself ñ we're appealing to a 24-29 year-old market and concentrating on encouraging consumers to experiment with fruit and discover the many ways in which it can be used. Trends in the UK market are extremely positive, and what's more, there is a lot of potential for the market to continue to grow.”
Florida grapefruit has a good following on the UK's wholesale markets where JO Sims procurement manager Darren Matschull says that fruit is fetching average prices of £10-£11 for 15kg counts of 40s. “Trade's pretty good at the moment,” he says, “although produce was selling well at the start of the season and it has slowed down a bit now.”
The best-eating grapefruit comes in after Christmas, says Burge, by which time the acid and brix ration has had time to come into balance. “Early on in the season the fruit can be slightly tart although overall grapefruit is not as sharp as it used to be. Growers now have more knowledge and are able to produce the fruit to modern tastes ñ but it still retains its sharp tang.”
Some growers are predicting that there will be less fruit for the UK market this season. “As the season goes on we'll get a better picture,” says Burge. “But once product is in the UK we have to be able to differentiate between Florida product and what is available from Israel, Cyprus and Turkey. Florida grapefruit is unique. We've got totally different soil conditions and we have in-house USDA inspectors. This year it all looks very promising and the ratio of fruit that can be sold as fresh is high ñ but then last year we started out with high packouts and then experienced high incidences of scarring ñ so you can never be too sure.”
Overall, Giles believes that the Florida citrus sector faces difficult times ahead. “China is often touted as a major new international market but we expect the Chinese to be a net exporter of fruit in the mid-to-long term and one only has to look at their track record of developing exports in other agri-food commodities to see what they are capable of,” he says.
“The industry body in Florida (FDOC) has a key role to play in the development of a mid to long-term industry plan to rejuvenate the fortunes of the sector in the international arena. It is clear that there are many challenges ahead and in some cases radical action will be required. Not all will agree with the future scenario that is likely to emerge, but an industry that is divided between growers, packers and shippers is not going to be in a strong situation to move on. The real danger is that things will get worse not better.
“The Florida industry must come to terms with the reality of the situation and move forward together. The world is full of agri-food sectors that have seen their traditional position of strength blind them to what is happening in other key sources of supply and not accept that their position in the market is under threat.
“Being a volume sender to the EU and other international markets is all well and good, but the value of exports will be just as important if not more so in the future. Papering over the cracks will not be good enough. All US suppliers have often been distracted by a large domestic market and while this is understandable to some extent, looking at what is happening in key international markets has to be of prime importance if the sector is to move forward. And the experience of other co operator groups in the US has shown what can happen once the sector begins to look at what is going on internally.
“The FDOC must concentrate on what is driving the international markets ñ on-going retail consolidation, more competition from emerging suppliers and a fast changing consumer base ñ and respond to these effectively. The FDOC has seen its promotional programme in the EU altered considerably in the last few years, but the overall trends remain unchanged. Tinkering around with the promotional budget is one thing. Getting alongside the main players at point of sale and investing in the development of ultra-close relationships is another thing altogether. But unless this takes place, it is likely that the Florida industry will continue to face a hard time in the EU market.
“Florida still has a terrific reputation for its quality,” Giles concludes. “But these days that is taken as a given. The past image of the sector cannot be solely relied upon. The Florida industry must look for a much more innovative way of driving its business forward than has been the case in the past. Only by looking at the real mid to long-term drivers in its own internal production sector and then the key forces for change in key international markets will the FDOC be able to plan and then lead its industry forward.”
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