Southern hemisphere citrus exports are likely to fall back this year although production will remain broadly in line with last season.
The forecast has been released by the Southern Hemisphere Association of Fresh Fruit Exporters (SHAFFE) and reveals the total crop from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, Peru, South Africa and Uruguay is likely to reach 6.5 million tonnes, some 0.63 per cent down on 2010. Exports are estimated to decline by 2.6 per cent to 2.3mt.
Argentinean and Chilean output are both expected to recover two per cent on last season and apart from Australia, the rest of the southern hemisphere is forecasting a lower corp. Peru’s prediction is for 854,000t, some 6.1 per cent below 2010 and provisional data from Uruguay suggests an 8.8 per cent year-on-year decrease.
Across the variety spectrum oranges and easy-peelers are likely to see output decline by nine per cent according to SHAFFE forecasts and lemons and grapefruit are forecasting significant increases in output of 18 and 12 per cent respectively. Exports of these two types are also likely to increase and a 33 per cent larger lemon crop in Argentina as it recovers from a drought last year is the main factor likely to lead to a forecast 11 per cent uplift in sendings.
The exchange rate situation and burgeoning demand for high quality fruit from emerging markets in Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Russia will all play a significant role in a shifting export scene.
“It will be an interesting marketplace,” said one industry analyst. “Russia is paying a fortune for South African fruit so any surplus is going that way and emerging markets such as South Africa itself are demanding better quality. As people get more affluent they want the finest looking fruit and it is considered a symbol of status.”
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