Whether or not you are sceptical about the citrus production forecasts emanating from Spain - one large importer advises us not to believe the “pre-season hype” - there is no denying the weather damage that has been suffered by the industry.
More than 750,000 tonnes of fruit were lost in the period up to mid-February and some trees were so badly damaged that they were almost completely defoliated.
Frosts continued into March, following which the summer was changeable but cooler than usual and there were hail and floods during early September.
Chris Rowe, citrus sales manager for Redbridge Worldfresh Ltd, was in Spain last week and so has up-to-date and first-hand knowledge of the situation from the heart of the growing regions.
“You can still see evidence of a lot of damage to citrus groves as you drive through,” he says, “and production has been hit hard.
“They’ve got paperwork over there showing that satsumas are down 50 per cent and early oranges down about the same, but there seem to be no problems in clementine varieties.
“For lemons it should be a normal year. They’ll have good volumes, although the fruit sizes will be down because of water shortages.
“Generally speaking it’s the early varieties - sats, Navels and Navelinas - that are down while later varieties like Navel Lates and Lane Lates should show an increase.”
Valencia, by some distance the largest citrus growing region, seemed to sustain the worst of the winter damage though Andalusia was also affected.
The results are outlined by Nicolas Belmonte of the Valencia-based growers organisation Frutsol, and a former president of the trade body Intercitrus.
“We have not yet heard the forecasts for the other growing regions of Catalonia, Murcia and Andalusia,” says Belmonte, “but in Valencia the production will be around 60 to 65 per cent of last year’s crop.
“Oranges have been affected more than mandarins. The forecast is that the short-fall on Navelinas will be almost 50 per cent, but only around 17 per cent in clementines.
“There could be a shortage of Navelinas in November, December and part of January, but on second-season produce like Navels and Lane Lates there will be no problem - production will be the same or even larger than last year.
“In terms of supplying overseas markets, though, the shortfall is a relative situation and I don’t think it should affect the normal supply of citrus to the major players in the retail markets.”
Whether or not the supply situation is affected due to lower volumes, there are no worries being expressed by major players in the UK market.
Asda fruit buyer Lee Harper says: “Potential shortages in Spain will be compensated for by other sources.
“We source northern hemisphere citrus fruit from Israel, Egypt, Morocco and Cyprus as well as Spain. According to quality levels at source and date code requirements by sku, we spread our programmes accordingly.
“But we strongly believe in the capability of Spain to maintain production, quality and service levels for the year to come.”
Peterborough based Redbridge Worldfresh is also happy to source product from other countries. “If Spain is going to be lower than its benchmark normal production,” says Rowe, “then an importer like us can increase our volumes from, say, Turkey, or promote different products.
“That’s what we are doing and we will cover any shortages. In oranges for instance, if we feel we’re going to be short in Spain we’ll cover it through Greece or extend our southern hemisphere season by a few weeks and then go to Greece or Morocco.”
At Poupart Imports (Supermarket), sole handler of the citrus category for Waitrose, there is every confidence that the supply from Spain will be exactly as anticipated.
Paul Olins, managing director of the Hertfordshire based company, says: “You shouldn’t believe all the pre-season hype with production figures, but if production is down it won’t make the slightest bit of difference to us - there’ll be more than enough for what we need.
“Last year, when Spain had terrible problems with frost, we got every single kilo we needed - if you pay the right money you’ll get all the quantity you want.”
Olins also believes that Spain’s market share in the UK is unlikely to be badly affected as we are such an important customer country.
“If volumes are lower,” he says, “then UK market share might be affected - but markets like Russia are more likely to be affected as are the secondary and tertiary markets. The best markets will always get the right quantities.”
Rowe concurs, though he adds a note of caution. “Spain is a very important player in the UK market and always will be,” he says, “and I certainly can’t see them losing any market share before Christmas.
“Once the other countries come in with easy-peelers post-Christmas though, there could be some difficulties for Spain.
“It depends on how they market themselves - if they tell too many people that they’re short, then importers might look elsewhere and other countries could take advantage.
Other countries will certainly be looking to take advantage if that particular scenario develops, but Spanish citrus producers have great confidence in their ability to survive perceived crises and become an even stronger industry.
Juan Bautista Juan, of Valencia’s citrus regulatory council, says: “While people might have to look elsewhere for their fruit to maintain their programmes, they should be wary.
“I don’t see the switch to other supply sources affecting the market in the long-term. The quality of Spanish fruit is far superior and our logistics advantages far outweigh the option of sourcing citrus from further afield.”
Frutsol’s Belmonte is equally assertive of his industry’s current and future prospects - in new as well as traditional markets - despite the growth in competition.
“In terms of this year,” he said, “I don’t think the UK market share for Spanish citrus will be much affected. The total volume could come down but not necessarily the market share.
“There is no reason, even with a shortage, why the UK is going to suffer - it will be a relative position compared to other markets.
“The UK is very important for Spanish citrus, it is our third largest export market after Germany and France. But although we always have to take into account that our natural market is Europe, we are looking at expanding our markets.
“We are developing overseas markets like South Korea and Japan, where we have finally achieved agreements with governments to allow the import of our citrus.
“They are markets with difficulties though, particularly transit but also in terms of the competition from countries who are their normal suppliers - the US for instance.
“The Far East markets are developing well, though, and we are also now exporting 60,000 to 70,000t of clementines to the US.
“While we are looking to continue this expansion of exports we are also aware of the competition we face. All Mediterranean countries are citrus producers and we have the competition of Egypt, Turkey in Satsumas and Morocco in Clementines - but that is life.
“Spain nevertheless holds the leadership position in citrus and we can maintain it. We are the largest producer, we have more sophisticated commercial structures and production techniques, we are developing more systems and we are very versatile.
“We have the ability to face consumer demands in terms of quality control, transport, control of pesticides and so on - we are at a very sophisticated level that gives us a competitive advantage.
“We may have years when we get lots of frosts and lose a lot of production, but those are acts of God. The structure of the industry is very solid, though.”
“We of course have to be prepared to adapt and move forward in order to meet changing consumer demands and face the competition, but in those respects I also believe the citrus industry in Spain is in good health.”
EASY LEADERS
The rise and rise of easy-peelers continues unabated, with sales increasingly outstripping those of other citrus products.
The reason is simple enough, reckons Asda fruit buyer Lee Harper. “Easy-peelers fulfil theconsumer’s need for easy and ready to eat products,” he says.
“Orangesare less easy to eat and therefore less popular. We foresee the trend for convenience products increasing further and easy-peelers will certainly benefit from this trend.”
If that’s the case then the market for oranges, lemons and grapefruit will surely shrink? “It’s really tough to keep orange sales at the same level, let alone going forward,” admits Paul Olins, managing director of the Poupart division that handles citrus for Waitrose.
“In grapefruit we’ve looked at the figures and we are doing much better than other people,” he adds, “but that’s because of the demographic spread that Waitrose has compared to other supermarkets.
We do see that other people are going backward while we’re going forward in grapefruit, but it’s not an easy one.
“Lemons is lemons, though - people will always buy, whether they want one or five, at more or less whatever the price. So the lemon side is growing even though it’s another tough one.”
So is there a way back for citrus’ old guard? “The UK market for lemons isn’t growing and for grapefruit it’s fairly stagnant as well,” concedes Jane Gilson of Foods from Spain.
“The British use lemons for decoration and slicing into gin and tonic - unless that changes, until for instance they get used to squeezing lemon juice on freshly cooked vegetables, then I can’t see the situation changing unless somebody dreams up a really clever way of getting people to use these products.” Food for thought?
WATCH THIS SPACE
Led by the trade organisation Intercitrus in conjunction with the Spanish foreign trade office, ICEX, an annual TV advertising campaign has for several years extolled the virtues of Spanish citrus to UK consumers.
It’s all change this year, however, with the TV ads being dropped in favour of a press and PR campaign being co-ordinated in the UK by Foods from Spain.
Janine Gilson, London based executive of the promotion agency, explains: “TV is terribly expensive and it’s very difficult to either measure the success of a campaign or to know for sure whether you’re reaching your target audience.
“So we’ll be running a press and PR campaign this year, aiming at trade and consumer publications and hopefully starting in November, but certainly hitting December issues.”
