While Eskom, South Africa’s sole electricity supply company has announced plans to sort out the Western Cape’s energy problems, Cape Town and the province can expect to continue experiencing black-outs for some time to come.
In an Eskom press release the company indicated that “there may be a short fall in electricity supply during peak demand periods up until the time when both Koeberg (The Western Cape nuclear power plant) units are again at full power, which is expected some time towards the end of July 2006. After July the Western Cape will still be vulnerable to blackouts, as problems in transferring electricity on ageing transmission lines from Mpumalanga in the North of the country to the Western Cape are likely to cause further problems and the necessary upgrades on the transmission lines will only be completed by May next year”.
Anton Rabe, ceo of the South African Deciduous Fruit Producers’ Trust says: “Although this situation is certainly frustrating and awkward, it is not a crisis. With patience and ingenuity we will still be able to provide our markets with what they would usually receive from us. A number of the larger packing and storage facilities have large generators as back-up power and are able to continue uninterrupted.”
The power black-outs could however be a costly problem as the current daily value of the top fruit packed is around 16 million rand and once the region is in full production this will increase to R25m. At full production, therefore, a 10 per cent interruption of the daily packing process could cost R1.6-2.5m a day.
Rabe adds that producers have reported that intermittent power supply has caused some equipment failures on electrical motors on cold storage compressors. The cold sterilisation programmes that are run for certain markets could also be interrupted if temperatures are not maintained, and this could cause delays in loading out and shipments.
Meanwhile, the start of the top-fruit season was one week later than last year and the total expected volume of pears is likely to be around 20 per cent less than in 2005, with the exception of Forelle volumes which look set to be roughly the same as last season. The apple ‘06 has just started with Royal Gala, and indications are that the harvest is likely to produce similar volumes to last year, with a possible five per cent increase.
“The current indications of a smaller total top-fruit crop is good news for South African producers as this season is set to be a challenge, given the current top-fruit scenario in Europe,” says Marinet Marais, top-fruit manager for Dole South Africa. “We are hoping that the generic promotion of SA Golden Delicious in the UK will raise the profile and price of our Goldens, as this variety is one of the cornerstones of our apple industry. We need to protect its place in the market and in order to successfully raise the profile of South African top-fruit in the market, we require a far higher level of investment in similar promotion drives.”
Liezel Kriegler, who heads up the top-fruit division at Colors Fruit and is a member of the Joint Pome Marketing Forum, says: “Despite the high stocks of apples currently in the European market, the internal quality of the apples is good this year and this makes for good keeping quality.”
She adds that a positive trend for producers is that due to the reduced crop during 2005, stocks on stored apples for the South African market are low and this has boosted current sale prices on the local market.
This year the Elgin/Grabouw region’s fruit is experiencing a degree of stem-end russet due to climate stress around the flowering and set stage. This means that a lower percentage of the region’s fruit will be fit for export.
“Our pear harvest is well underway and thus far has been approximately 5 per cent lighter than our projection and fruit sizes have been smaller than last season,” says professor Daan Strydom of the Du Toit Group, one of South Africa’s largest top-fruit producers with farms in the Koue Bokkeveld production region centred around the town of Ceres as well as in the Lang Kloof production region, 400 km to the east.
“Our apple harvest has commenced with Royal Gala and these were on average one count smaller than last year. The rest of the harvest from the Ceres Valley is looking promising as we expect to start harvesting our Golden Delicious this week and it looks set to be a vintage crop. Cold evening temperatures are assisting the coloration of red and bi-colour apples and we are expecting a full crop on those red and bicolour apples, although the volumes on the Granny Smith harvest could prove to be a little lower than last year,” he adds.
Production regions in the Western Cape, particularly in the Elgin area, are facing climate challenges as the increase in temperatures experienced in the region is having a detrimental effect on apple production. The colder temperatures experienced in the Koue Bokkeveld region ensure a good climate for top-fruit production.
“The Langkloof production region has much potential as a production region as it has the ideal climate for top-fruit production and an abundant water supply. The region is isolated and although logistics remain a challenge, the region is fast catching up to the Western Cape with their production techniques and technical expertise,” says Pieter Du Toit of the Du Toit Group.
The serious drought in the Western Cape province that affected the 2004/2005 production also affected the set of this year’s reduced crop, but fortunately the region received plentiful rains through the past winter and water reserves have been sufficiently replenished to meet irrigation requirements for the remainder of the harvest.
Over the past 15 years, the continuous reduction in the use of heavy pesticides has proved to be beneficial to the environment, as producers have reported that they have begun to see certain species of benign birds and insects returning to the gardens and orchards that they had last seen there more than a decade ago. Growers are also making more use of biological fertilisers and integrated pest management (IPM) systems in the orchards than before.
MARKET IMBALANCE CONCERNS MUDGE
Diminishing returns, rising production costs and climatic challenges have been putting pressure on South African top-fruit producers for a number of years. “Our statutory tree census has revealed that over the last seven years, 4,000 hectares of top-fruit orchards have been removed and replaced with other crops,” says Nigel Mudge, chairman of the Joint Pome Marketing Forum, a voluntary industry body established this year to protect the interests of the producer in the marketplace.
“We are pleased to have established the Joint Pome Marketing Forum as it is good news for our industry. We now have a body to establish total industry information systems, as well as to extend our promotion of South African top fruit in our international markets. This also has the potential to provide good follow up on the current Golden Delicious promotion campaign in the UK and the South African Exporters’ Forum has welcomed this initiative,” he adds.
“I am concerned about excessive power vested in retail and the system has gone out of balance, as there is no longer a free market pricing system. Currently there are more than 10,000 international fresh produce producers selling to 10 buyers in the UK and thus the power of the retailers has aggregated to such an extent that it is destroying the supply base. We need legislation to protect the producers before the producers disappear,” stresses Mudge.
Nicholas Dicey has been appointed as chairman of SAAPPA (South African Apple and Pear Producers’ Association), to replace Mudge. He said: “I’m excited about this initiative. The Joint Pome Marketing Forum has been created with the view to represent the grower’s interests in the markets. The forum will enhance our product and allow our producers to make an informed decision for marketing their product.”
SPRING IN STEP FOR SA FRUIT
It may be winter outside, but the impending arrival of South African top fruit spells spring, and despite some minor growing setbacks, export volumes for the UK market are on course.
Early forecasts were not so positive: South Africa has experienced a dry, hot summer. However, a satisfactory amount of rain has countered this aridity.
The heat has had some affect on fruit sizing and, overall, much of the export crop will be smaller this season, although this will not affect the UK, which favours smaller sizes.
The hot weather has also meant bi-coloured apples, blush pears and red apples have suffered poor colour development. Capespan’s Martin Dunnett says he hopes Pink Lady will escape these problems: “It’s still early to talk about Pink Lady. A cold front that moves through the Western Cape can colour fruit very quickly so there could be a lot of good colour development a couple of weeks before harvest. There’s been an increase in volume of Pink Lady and South Africa has significant volumes for the July, August and September trading period,” he says.
More recently, a tropical storm (March 1) sparked concerns; heavy windstorms have meant a lot of fruit drop. “We are just picking up the pieces really,” Dunnett says. “It was particularly heavy last Wednesday as winds blew south through the Western Cape. The wind has died down now but it’s done some damage. We are yet to see how it will affect availability but it shouldn’t affect the UK.”
On the UK marketing front, the South African Golden Delicious promotion promises to offer the category a ray of light and Dunnett says the launch is perfectly timed to capture the market: “There’s always a fantastic opportunity; the arrival of South African fruit comes around Easter so spring’s arriving and people feel good. The first fruit from South Africa comes in and is high quality and tastes good. South African fruit genuinely always has a good flavour,” he says. “The harder the apple tree works the better the quality of the fruit. All these things build into a strong marketing period for new season fruit.”
All in all, the long-term outlook looks stable, although successive power cuts across the country have worried some growers. Dunnett says locals expect the problem to be fixed soon, although potentially it could hamper early production. “Not all packhouses are up to speed yet. The test will be in the next two to three weeks when packhouses are in full swing.”
In general, it seems South African top-fruit is entering a more positive phase. Despite a strong rand spoiling export prospects, the local economy is going from strength to strength with a high GDP and a rising black middle-class demographic contributing to domestic fruit sales.
Dunnett says Granny Smith has increased its market share in the last three years. “World production is slightly lower as it was seen as quite old fashioned,” he says, “but because bi-coloured has had such a competitive environment and Granny Smith had a loyal consumer following, it’s done well.”
On the other side of top fruit, Dunnett says Williams pears are in short supply - around 30 per cent down in overall volumes. “However, this is enough to fill programmes,” he says. The impending Packham’s season, due to take over in four weeks’ time looks to be problem-free.
He also reports Forelle has had experienced good spring and summer trading with 20-30 per cent growth overall.
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