The South African Avocado Growers’ Association (SAAGA) has revised crop estimates for this season downwards following heavy frosts three weeks ago.
SAAGA has been assessing the effects of frosts this week and last week, and has calculated that export volumes are likely to be down by between 500,000 and one million cartons.
“At the beginning of the season we forecast an export crop of 9.5m cartons,” said Derek Donkin of SAAGA. “But there were some orchards affected by the frost and we have also had a strong local market in the early season so some of the green-skinned fruit has stayed at home.”
He said the frost mainly affected Sout Pansberg, Tzaneen and Nelspruit. “The Hazyview/Kiepersol area where a large proportion of the export crop comes from, has not been affected by the frosts and some orchards had already been picked before the cold snap,” he said. “We estimate the total now will be 8.5m to 9m cartons.”
But one exporter calculated that 20-30 per cent of the crop had been lost with a lot of fruit dropping of trees in the middle of the Hass season and problems with internal blackening. “There will be problems for anyone reliant on fruit just from the higher areas as they were hit quite badly,” he said.
SAAGA has not evaluated what proportion of the fruit lost to the frosts is of the variety favoured by the UK, Hass. “The UK is most often considered our premium market, so exporters are most likely to fulfil those programmes,” said Donkin. “Maybe there will be less going to other markets to keep the UK market supplied.”
SAAGA will promote its product heavily in the UK at the height of the season with radio and print-media campaigns as well as in-store activities that will also involve importers and pre-packers.
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