Reading is probably one of the best places in the UK to hear balanced opinions about the eventual impact of climate change. Although I am rather glad that, if things do start to get really difficult in the time frame envisaged, it will be long after I have already been added to the carbon in the atmosphere.

Reading, after all, houses the Met Office, which, certainly as far as long-range forecasting is concerned, is far more accurate than it used to be. The same Berkshire town also has an excellent university, which posts fine credentials when it comes to agricultural science.

So the stage was well set for the seminar I attended there last week, looking towards changes which should face the farming and horticultural communities up to 2050, and then beyond.

The only downside was that while there was no shortage of academics and environmentalists in the 100-strong gathering, the presence of the industry, apart from the NFU, was virtually non-existent.

There are, however, what many would consider some serious messages to pass back, which are expected to lead to changes in crops and production patterns.

Scientists are naturally cautious, and agree it will be some time before the south of England is transformed into the Costa Brava. However, the first signs of Judgement Day may have been appearing during the last decade, with the development of a buoyant English wine industry. Now apricots are already being grown in Kent, peaches are apparently under consideration, and I read that someone is even planting olive trees in the West Country.

Hotter summers may sound fine, but if you are a fruit, brassica or flower grower (and I avoid mentioning all other arable crops and livestock based on ignorance), the implications could ultimately be seismic. There is already the scientific rationale that deciduous fruit production, for example, will move northwards.

But what must surely put a shiver down everyone’s spine is the “variability factor” described by Professor Geoffrey Dixon of the Institute of Horticulture, forecasting a lack of orchard and plant dormancy and water shortages, coupled with the retention of early frosts and high winds.

Hope, of course, springs eternal, through the acceptance of genetic modification, which has so far left horticulture untouched. But when it does come back on the table for discussion, one can expect to see more public outcry.

Thinking outside the box, it is also intriguing to consider what will happen to the traditional seasonal calendars that have grown up over the last 50 years. For example, what role will the southern hemisphere play when matched against a newly fruiting Europe?

Could the colder climes of North America and beyond the Urals become the new Gardens of Eden?

My best hope is that the FPJ will still be around to record these scenarios, and even a harassed editor looking for copy might research this column, and mutter: “You know what, old Shapley saw it coming!”

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