Almost a fifth of the fresh produce industry in the UK is already in a recession, a new publication by industry analyst Plimsoll Publishing suggests. Economists are talking of a second-half recession this year already and those companies already struggling in the fresh produce business are likely to use this talk of a slow down to bury their own bad news, warned Plimsoll.

"I think the game of blame the industry will start soon," said Plimsoll senior analyst David Pattison. "Let's face it: it's an ideal time to rush any bad news out and managers can use talk of a recession to cover up any problems that go back years. The reality is there is a lot of success out there and these struggling companies are simply being outplayed by the competition."

Plimsoll's latest publication analysed 1,000 companies assessing them on their sales and profitability in their last two years of trading. The results showed that 19 per cent are most at risk as they are already affected, seeing a slowdown in the market and experiencing a fall in both profits and sales in the two-year period.

The good news is that 40 per cent of the industry is doing well and seems unaffected showing no signs of recessionary behaviour and with an increase in sales and profits. The same percentage have improved their margins over the last period while 38 per cent have seen margins fall.

A further 14 per cent of companies are showing signs of caution and while profits have improved, sales have declined in the last period. And 27 per cent of companies appear intent on capturing market share "whatever the cost," said Pattison. "While their sales have increased, profits have fallen in the last period."

Plimsoll's publication is a 1,255 page report with a individual graphical analysis for each of the 1,000 companies profiled. "Put simply a falling line is bad news and a rising line is good news," said Pattison. "This allows readers to decide for themselves which companies they think are most at risk and which are best placed to prosper irrespective of market conditions."

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