“Recession panic” is ebbing away from the high street but retailers should not expect a speedy return to pre-recession growth, warns TNS Worldpanel.
It its latest grocery market share figures, for the 12 weeks ending September 6, it said panic was seeping away from the retail market and the success of upmarket retailer Waitrose showed promise.
UK number-one Tesco’s market share fell slightly from 31.1 per cent last year to 30.9 per cent, while Waitrose saw a significant increase in its share, up to 3.9 per cent from 3.7 per cent in 2008.
Asda, Sainsbury’s and Morrisons all continue to grow share and have added 1.1 share points between them.
Growth for Aldi and Lidl continues to fall back from 2008 levels, with Aldi growing ahead of the market at eight per cent and Lidl just keeping pace with the market growth of 5.2 per cent.
Grocery price inflation has further decreased since last month and the figure for the 12 week-ending period September 6 is 4.3 per cent - a sixth successive drop in grocery price inflation.
Ed Garner, director of TNS Worldpanel, said: “[Figures] confirm the impression that “recession panic” is ebbing away as far as the grocery market is concerned. This is not to imply that all sectors of the high street will instantly return to pre-recession growth - rather that food remains a manageable proportion of most household budgets by historical standards and, it could be argued, the grocery sector suffered from an over-reaction at the end of 2008 when Aldi posted year-on-year sales growth of 26 per cent and Waitrose saw a sales decline.
“Fast-forward to today and Waitrose is the top performer, with a growth rate of 11.2 per cent - the highest since August 2006. Admittedly this will be boosted by the stores acquired from the Co-operative/Somerfield combination, but it is hardly a sign of a rush downmarket.
“It is too early yet to assess the impact of Tesco’s Clubcard 2 within this 12-week period and the Tesco share continues to come under pressure.”
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