The Chilean peso is strengthening against the dollar compared to last season and the dollar is now worth some peso640 compared to peso750 last season. Most Chilean senders are paid by their UK receivers in dollars and sterling is at record highs against the US currency. "The Chileans are reeling from the strength of their currency over the dollar," said Geoff Green of Capespan International which handles South African and Chilean fruit. "They will get some benefit from lower duties into the EU this season, but it is not as good a picture as last year. The South African season will be even tougher."
With sterling having weakened against the euro, Continental Europe and particularly those countries in the eurozone look more appealing to exporters. "Anyone who is looking to export will be looking favourably at euro-based economies," said Green. "The only choice senders have is to make a judgement on whether to lock into current rates or risk the continued strengthening of their currency which could be quite harmful."
With this shadow hanging over the season, there are also concerns with regard to crop volumes. Temperature fluctuations at flowering in some production areas in Chile may cause problems with white seedless availability and at this early stage in crop development, there are not as many bunches on the vines as growers would like on early varieties in northerly growing areas. Some sources have told the Freshinfo that they expect there could be a downturn in volumes and possible shortage. However, other receivers stress that with two months to go before fruit for the UK market is harvested, it is still too early to tell. "Growers are saying they could have done with a bit more rain in the winter, but apart from that prospects look good," said one source.
A strong US market will also be important for the UK and the rest of Europe to help guard against an oversupply of Chilean grape on markets in the old continent. After a disastrous year three seasons ago, when large early volumes were shipped into Europe to compensate for reportedly lower South African availability, there are unlikely to be many takers in Chile for pre-February demand this season.
Meanwhile, Capespan's Paul Abell confirms previous forecasts that the season from early areas in South Africa is running about a week late, although volumes for export are unlikely to be affected. "In the western end of the Orange River, which is an early area, there is more fruit available in the early varieties so the availability of volumes pre-Christmas should be similar to a normal year," said Abell. Overall volumes are likely to be affected by only about five per cent and the forecast is for 46million to 48m cartons of export fruit.
In the interim, first fruit from Brazil is now in Europe and is meeting a ready market supplementing Spain and California. As a source Brazil is exciting the UK market and traditional importers are investigating establishing the country as a regular source in the supply calendar.
"Brazil has high ideas for this season and its fruit is coming into a very welcoming market for good samples," one source told the Freshinfo. "It is extremely quiet in the wholesale markets, but the demand is there at retail level for both red and white varieties, seeded and seedless."
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