The British Potato Council (BPC)’s supply estimate for the 2004-05 crop year has been revised upwards to 6.106 million tonnes. The provisional estimate of calculated end-December stocks of 2.68m-3.27mt is slightly higher than stocks at the same point in the 2003-04 season.

“The stock situation indicates a stable market,” said BPC market information manager Rob Burrow. “What we are seeing is more and more demand centred on the quality end of the market. So we may see price increases on those samples as the season progresses while prices ease back at the bottom end of the market.”

Lower quality product is already seeing low prices: 300-350p for 44lb on wholesale markets this week.

“We had an awkward growing season with a wet August which delayed harvesting and some product, that was lifted later because of the rains, did not dry out properly, leading to more cost to get it into the right condition to store,” said Burrow. “Some product did not dry out well enough and we are seeing an increase in breakdown and wastage.”

Although the volumes lost are not sufficient to have an effect on the overall supply situation, the mild winter is also taking its toll on tubers in ambient store with some sprouting. “Growers are having to move product to market more quickly adding to price pressure at the lower end,” said Burrow.

Higher yields in, and exchange rate differentials with, northern Europe are having a knock-on effect on the UK. “We are seeing a slight increase in imports to processors as the price differential makes it worthwhile, which could have a capping effect on our market prices for the rest of the season,” said Burrow. “It is panning out to be a very average season with the main factor being quality.”

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