This year will be extremely tough for the fresh produce trade, with category management likely to take the hardest hit, but the possibility of a resurgence of the wholesale sector.

These are some of the forecasts from the latest poll on freshinfo which asked “How will the produce industry fare in 2009?” An overwhelming 69 per cent believe that 2009 will be worse than 2008 for the fresh produce industry and there were also a record number of comments from readers on this issue.

Pollster Golden Delicious foresees a very hard year. “The main problem will be that the multiples have no experience of negative growth or even no profit. This will drive them down the easy road of cutting the buying price. Some 10 years ago one of the big three was working on 26 per cent gross margin, it is now on 42 per cent. If the multiples are not seeing a profit at this level, then they have two choices to better their results: put up their prices (which is not going to happen in this climate or drop their buying price and squeeze more money out of their suppliers. This could be fatal and the ‘yes’ category managers will be hit harder than most - just look at the insurance cover you can get on them now, if any - they are an easy target and have nowhere to run whereas growers can always try in other markets.”

And an anonymous contributor asked; “Will you struggle to find good growers to supply the category manager at less money than the wholesale markets?”

Other commentators foresee an even bleaker picture for certain sub-sectors of the trade, such as a severe downturn in sales of organics, exotics and premium lines.

But not all respondents agree and at least one pollster believes a relationship with the multiples may be the only answer: “2009 will be an unmitigated disaster unless you are in bed with the multiples and even then it will be the toughest it has ever been.”

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