Are plant supplies in danger of running out before the summer has really started? Growers are beginning to raise this possibility, pointing to the high sales which have been experienced since Easter.
The warm weather has led to much higher sales of bedding plants than usual with around 50 percent of available stock being sold by early May - 20 percent higher than in previous years. Garden centres nationwide are reporting year on year increases of up to 40 percent for March and April, with a similar situation being reported on the continent where sales have been equally high.
If this continues, available plant stock - particularly of bedding plants - could become seriously depleted within a very short time. Retailers who have worked closely with growers to manage stock levels are unlikely to experience any major problems. The Horticultural Trades Association believes that the real difficulty will be faced by retailers and other distributors who have traditionally relied on availability of surplus stock.
Over the past two years, growers have cut back substantially on the production of surplus stock. Bedding plant growers used to produce up to 30 percent surplus stock each year, which was used to fulfil late orders or re-orders. If not required, the merchandise was sold onto market stalls. This process has been becoming less common as growers have increasingly been growing to order.
This year there appears to be very little available for sale to market stalls and re-orders are unlikely to be fulfilled by many growers. Available stock has been selling faster than anticipated. Impatiens, diascias, nemesias and begonias are proving highly popular with shoppers. All the evidence points to consumers being keen to take this opportunity to do up their gardens, and add some fresh new planting.
Ian Riggs of Sakata pointed out: “We have been taking phone calls from people asking for incredible amounts of product. If we have periods of rain and sunshine now it will promote sales still further. By the late bank holiday weekend, shoppers will have to look for a much wider range of plants.”
Simon Edwards, group operations director of Golden Acres Nursery, added that while he could not see a big boom, sales are certainly going well. “Geraniums are proving popular and people are buying lots of basket plants. Sales have been higher than expected. I am expecting a slight hiatus for the next week or so while new stock appears,” he said.
But Dawn Smith, executive officer of the British Protected Ornamentals Association, is not convinced. “It is far too early to judge. It has been a good season so far, but this week sales have slowed down because of the rain. We only need two weeks of steady rain to put the situation back to where it usually is,” she said.
The weather may hold the key to the situation. Sunshine immediately brings out the shoppers keen to buy plants for their gardens. Although there have been spells of rain all week, it has been interspersed with long spells of sunshine. Weather forecasts have not been very accurate. In East Anglia, for example, some forecasters predicted long spells of continuous rain on some days - but the outcome was the exact opposite.
The presence of some rain has made soil more manageable, making planting easier and reducing any need to water. This can make consumers even keener to go out and get plants to settle into their gardens before the onset of summer.
Indications are that some growers are already taking advantage of the situation. Peter Wood of Delamore’s explained: “Growers are bringing through new planting quickly so to have new supplies ready for June. Miniplugs will grow fast at this time of the year.”
The big question is what will this mean for next year’s plans? Is there any possibility of another boom and bust period? So far growers and retailers are hedging their bets.
Ian Riggs cautioned: “It may be a flash in the pan. Retailers launch sales of bedding plants at Easter but Easter next year is early on March 18th, only two weeks after Mother’s Day. It is going to be a dilemma for growers. Do you increase volumes for next year on the back of good sales this year? It will be driven by what retailers decide. Many retailers and growers have had their fingers burnt over the last two years.”
Simon Edwards of Golden Acres recalls that the last time the industry apparently had a weather pattern like this was in 1943. “I think what happens this year will make some people increase their growing stock,” he muses. “Some will enter the market because they have seen what has happened. It is an easy market to enter, especially for food growers with some spare space.”
Delamore’s Peter Wood predicts a marginal increase of around five to six percent in available supplies. This has been an abnormal year. If we get another year like this next year it will be fantastic.”
Meanwhile Alex Newey, commercial director of Young Plants, believes that retailers appear to be taking the view that they do not want to speculate on the market. “They are being cautious. The season started three weeks early and when the season finishes, that will be that,” he said. “It is too early to judge the future. This may be something that happens once every five years or so. Or given climate change, it could be the shape of things to come.”
The HTA has no doubts about what should happen. The organisation’s Erica Harper says that lessons should be learned from this year. “Clearly there are lessons to be learned. Everyone should learn to do more detailed production planning. No one knows what the weather is going to do from year to year. Retailers and growers must work together to match supply and demand. This is the year when the value of co-operation can be seen and working together will benefit everyone.”
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