Representatives from each producer country unveiled the estimates at last week's Prognosfruit conference in Italy. In tonnage terms, the total crop is likely to top the 2 million tonne market at 2.227mt compared to last season's 1.971t.

Italy is by far the largest pear producer in the union and it foresees an increase in crop volumes of 8.2 per cent to 858,095t. This compares well with the five-year average and represents just a 1.5 per cent increase. There are gains across most of the major cultivars with flagship variety Abate Fetel production expected to be up 13.39 per cent on last year, some 9.4 per cent ahead of the five-year average at 254,810t. Williams, Conference and Coscia-Ercollini are all forecast to post slight production gains on last year varying from 1.4 to 3.8 per cent. Comice is expected to bounce back from a low volume season in 2001 recovering by 40 per cent to reach 75,662t.

The largest growing area in Italy is Emilia Romagna which suffered two heavy hailstorms at crucial points in the production period. As a result a larger percentage of fruit than last season is expected to be graded out for industry.

Although the crop from Italy this season is likely to be slightly up on the five-year average, the Italian delegation at last week's conference pointed out that comparing production averages in 1993-98 with 1999-2002, pear supply has fallen steadily by 11 per cent. This is accounted for by gradual declines in production capacity of Guyot, Max Red Bartlett, Comice, Passacrassana and to a lesser extent, Conference. Williams, Abate Fetel and Coscia have all shown slight production gains compared to 1993-98.

Other pear highlights from across Europe include a recovery in the French crop to within 3.2 per cent of the five-year average after a very low volume 2001 harvest. The Netherlands is also expected to recover to produce 175,000t , up 27.74 per cent on the five-year average and 150 per cent on last season's poor crop. Belgium too should see a recovery in its Conference crop to the tune of 40 per cent on last season leaving it just three per cent adrift of the 1997-2001 figure.

UK volumes will be very similar to 2001 at a forecast 34,500t. And Portugal is likely to see a decline to 113,000t from 135,000t in 2001 bringing it into line with the five-year average.

And across the variety spectrum, Conference still dominates accounting for 25 per cent of European production and likely to be 19 per cent up on 2001 and 10 per cent above the five-year average.

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