While the organic fruit and vegetable sector has become an established part of the retail scene, there is no doubt that it has been under pressure as the economic crisis has worsened.

The first signs were flagged up by a Mintel report published last October, with the downturn confirmed more recently by the Soil Association and ongoing TNS data.

If my spies are right, several supermarkets have been looking hard at the proportion of shelf space that their organic range now shares with conventional crops - which, in certain cases, has led to some delistings. At the same time, the premium usually achieved, like everything else, has been shaved closer and closer.

However, over the last month, there have been several signs of improvement reported across the whole food range and if the uplift continues, we can expect the ongoing debate to resurface over how large the organic sector can become.

The first shots can be expected to be fired in September, when the Organic Trade Board launches its business plan aimed at increasing total sales, which includes non-edibles, by £1 billion by 2015. However well meaning, I suspect that the road, despite being well planned, will be somewhat rocky.

First, convincing growers to increase production of any crop is usually only successful if there is the confidence to make the investment, because some level of assurance can be sought from their future retail customers. Whatever the level of lip service paid, this is often far harder to achieve than imagined.

Second, if the various reports are right, organic marketing has widened its scope in terms of outlets, particularly for UK vegetable and salad production, which provides the bulk lines from spring to autumn.

While supermarkets may have been selling less in this period, the winners apparently have been the box schemes and the farmers’ markets selling directly to the public.

One area where I do agree with the experts is that while the definition of organics is clearly and legally quantified by producers, it is still very blurred in the minds of consumers.

Back on the shelf, the recent arrival of new lines labelled as “grown without pesticides” has also caused some confusion. It also appears that people buy organics for a variety of reasons beyond just the perception of healthier food - for example, supporting strong environmental beliefs.

And finally, there is the public debate over the nutritional benefits of organic food. Only last week, an independent review commissioned by the Food Standards Agency (FSA) was unable to identify any important differences. However, as to be expected, these findings brought an immediate response to the contrary from the Soil Association. Those who bother to read the small print will probably remain as confused as they were before.

What one can say is that the FSA’s timing has done the organic cause little good at a time when it believes it is on the road to recovery.