Like everything in life, when it comes to predicting the future, the old adage ‘only time will tell’ always rings true.

One thing that is clear, however, following last week’s

Re:fresh Conference, is that there are still as many diverse and variable opinions over the potential of organic fresh produce as there are organic products.

First, there is the question mark over how far sales can expand the sector beyond its niche market status. Certainly, organics is now a firmly established part of the food chain, yet still only constitutes a very small percentage when compared with conventionally grown crops.

Any further expansion, in my view, will be influenced by a number of external factors. Profitability for everyone, from the grower to the retailer, is obviously the key factor. But a shadow may already be appearing, if the research from dunnhumby collated over the past two years from Tesco data proves to be right. In a nutshell, while retail tickets have reduced for many lines, this is not having the effect of increasing sales.

This hardly makes for good news further back down the line, where producers must already be influenced by the cost of having to first set land aside, and then the issue of certain crops that produce lower yields.

Remembering the old saying that the UK follows the habits of the US, there is also the report that organics on the other side of the Atlantic are no longer experiencing an upward momentum, as the trend is now moving towards greater recognition of local products. At least in this instance, our retailers and growers seem to be ahead of the game.

On the brighter side, if untapped potential does remain in the UK, sales could still expand if the industry as a whole comes up with a clearer definition of what “organic” really means.

The reduction of chemicals and pesticides has been its single unique selling point to date. But at the same time, various claims, often in the national media have, I believe, unfairly pilloried conventional producers who are also on track to reduce chemical usage - simply because of public ignorance.

There is nothing wrong with organics having their devotees, although again according to research, consumers appear to be buying into the category for a whole host of reasons. These encompass everything from environmental support, to beliefs that the product simply tastes better.

The news this week, therefore, that a new trade association has been born called the Organic Trade Board, which aims to represent the entire edible and non-edible organic industry, is good news. Its value, if nothing else, will be if it can become the focus of a balanced and accurate source of opinion.

It could also find itself at the forefront of the need to communicate on other associated issues in the years ahead, if retail labelling moves into the arena where fruit and vegetables are identified with a carbon footprint. And while it may sound far-fetched at present, the opinion that as world resources dwindle, producers will be identified through their minimum water usage could also have repercussions. As organics has demonstrated, it is such concerns which impact on customers’ choice.