As the apple category moves through the hemisphere switch, the signs are good for the 2008-09 northern hemisphere campaign.
There is no discernible overhang to hinder a smooth transition, and production volume is down in most northern hemisphere growing nations, which leaves stores and minds clear to focus on northern fruit.
Despite a predicted two per cent decrease in apple production overall for the 2008-09 season, the English industry expects a season marked by good quality and further market share inroads.
The local buying trend has become stronger since the beginning of last season, and the expansion of Gala and Braeburn, those chosen as the near-term future of domestic growers, will see yields of the two popular varieties rise by 16 and 11 per cent respectively. Cox production could be as much as 15 per cent down on last season’s final figure of 49,000 tonnes, and early reports suggest that production of the smaller-scale varieties will drop too.
There are mixed reports on Bramley, which needs a decent crop to maximise potential in its bicentennial year. There is a five per cent year-on-year shortfall in initial predictions, but the key to the season will probably be the balance struck between the needs of the fresh and processing sectors, says one supplier.
Both Italy and France had experienced hail damage around blossom time this year, with the resultant decreases in volume currently estimated at seven per cent and nine per cent respectively.
This should not have a particularly large impact on the UK market. French volumes may be down on 2007-08, but fruit quality is, in the main, looking good, and a total of 1.52 million tonnes leaves plenty to go round. Golden Delicious will account for 541,000t - 12 per cent down on last season - Gala 263,000t, nine per cent down on last year, Granny Smith 170,000t, down two per cent on last season, and Braeburn, 112,000t - a significant 22 per cent drop from 2007-08.
The UK is still France’s largest apple export market, with 150,000t, equivalent to more than three quarters of the UK’s domestic crop sales, having been sent in the last two seasons. French exporters remain committed, but have to weigh up the potential to make returns elsewhere, as was clear from last week’s feature in FPJ.
Another key supplier to the UK, specifically with its Empire variety, is the New York apple industry, and New Yorkers are waiting anxiously to find out the full extent of hail damage across the state in the last two months.
It has not been possible to make accurate assessments of the impact of the storms that first hit New York on June 10 and have continued to arrive sporadically since. “We had a great bloom and a great crop was on the trees state-wide,” Jim Allen, president of the New York Apple Association tells FPJ. “Sizing was looking good and the industry was very optimistic.”
That has not changed for everyone, he added, although one of the worst affected growers said his frost-affected orchard looked like someone had taken a shotgun to it. Around a third of all orchards have suffered significant damage. “For the worst-hit growers, they have lost their entire crop, but some growers were able to thin out after the early damage and technological advances in the state in recent years mean that post-harvest handling and sorting will ensure there is a good volume of marketable fruit available,” says Allen.
“I think there will be a reduction in volume, but we are waiting to see what we get at harvest, and it will largely be down to the individual marketers what proportion of their fruit is deemed fit for market. Depending on sizing and grading, the volumes may not change as all that much.”
A lot of other factors are very encouraging, says Allen. “Demand is very good domestically and we have had a very good four or five years of growth in the UK for Empire. We shipped 5,000 to 6,000 units into the UK in May this year, and to go as late as that into the season is always encouraging. We remain committed to that, and I would not expect there to be a shortage of fruit for UK customers.”
Looking slightly backwards, the 2007-08 apple season for the EU15 - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the UK - was the best season financially for the industry for 10 years, according to one speaker at Prognosfruit, in Kent.
The EU15 had its smallest crop since 1991, and benefited from both weaker volume coming from the southern hemisphere and increasing demand across the old continent.
“For the first time, we have a positive balance of trade for the EU 15,” said one analyst at Prognosfruit, in Kent earlier this month. “The price of apples was up to 10 per cent higher as a general rule. One UK insider says, however: “It may be true in other European countries, but that certainly isn’t reflected in the returns we have seen. What’s new about that though?”.
The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) this month released consolidated figures for the 2008 southern hemisphere top-fruit crop.
A total of 5.07mt of apples were produced in the southern hemisphere last season, which represented a drop of 2.6 per cent year on year.
Chile, the largest southern producer, increased its output by 4.53 per cent, to 1.87mt, while Brazil, the second largest, experienced a 16.95 per cent decrease, to 824,900t. South Africa and Australia recorded slight increases in volume, while Argentina and New Zealand registered small decreases.
The season for New Zealand has been strong in all markets - the UK, rest of Europe, the US and Asia. Peter Beaven, ceo of Pipfruit NZ, attributes this to a number of factors. “There was good movement of northern hemisphere stocks before the start of the season to give a good balance with the southern hemisphere once our season started,” he says. “But also the southern hemisphere crop has been light across the board, with the possible exception of South Africa. So we have seen a good balance of supply and demand.”
Braeburn from New Zealand was down from 5.9m cases a year ago to 4.1m cases this season, so there has been very strong pull through the market, which has in part compensated for the fact that the crop was smaller. And the exchange rate has moved in the right direction for New Zealanders, to the tune of 10 per cent against the US dollar, giving sales in the US and Asia a boost. Rates against the euro and sterling have been favourable too. “So the season is finishing strongly,” says Beaven.
The UK’s share of the total NZ apple export crop remains strong although there was a slight decline from an average 22 per cent in the last three seasons to 18 per cent this year. Europe’s share fell to 41 per cent from 54 per cent a year ago, due to the drop in the Braeburn crop.
EARL WELCOMES INTER-DEPENDENCY
I chaired the Agricultural Research Council at a time when Margaret Thatcher was cutting all expenditure on agriculture, and our research base in the UK declined dramatically, said the Earl of Selborne during his keynote speech at the Prognosfruit apple and pear conference held recently in Kent.
But that gave me an awareness of how we need to protect and enhance our research base around the world - a research base on which we are totally dependent.
There is a statement of self-evident truth on which the north European apple grower has to operate - yields in northern Europe will always be affected by lack of light levels compared to other countries, which is why we have a reputation for sticking with varieties for a very long time - Cox, Bramley, etc. But this is not to say that we have not adopted new varieties.
East Malling Research in Kent has done excellent R&D work with dedicated staff. But I had the chance to preside over a much greater research base, which had much more public funding. Lots of bases disappeared, and that was a very sad period for the English apple grower.
We are becoming ever more inter-dependent as an international community of apple and pear growers. We have always had close links - for example, the UK and New Zealand always complemented each other. But now we are also much more enmeshed with our northern European partners and I only hope England can continue to make a contribution through its diminished research base.
England has always been a net importer of apples, and we have always seen it as an advantage to keep the market refreshed - providing we can agree on how to keep the two hemispheres’ production in balance.
So it is a surprise that in 2008, the main UK variety is still Cox - for now, although Gala may overtake - and even more surprising is the continuing popularity of Bramley.
We recognise how dependent we are now on intensive Dutch planting systems, which require greater irrigation and higher capital costs, with greater quantities of trees per hectare. If we are to remain sustainable in economic terms, we must have precocious cropping with higher grade-out and bigger yields.
And if we have expensive systems, we need relevant outlets for all fruit grades. A stream of outlets will make all the difference between success and failure.
Costs are common to all elements of the agricultural sector, and the cost of fossil fuels is out of our control. Any input costs are spiralling out of line with inflation. The loss of agrochemicals will not be helped at all by the implications of EU legislation, restricting further our choice. Seasonal labour costs are also increasing dramatically.
We are a sector that can benefit the environment. We cannot label ourselves as part of this problem, but part of the solution. We are aware of the loss of biodiversity and farmers have been challenged to do something about it. We have to be quite clear that the words intensification and harmonised environment are compatible. Sustainable development must mean in economic terms, as well as opportunities for a mixed land use. To intensify the apple and pear area is to help increase biodiversity - the two are very important partners. It is possible to enhance biodiversity with successful, commercially productive agriculture alongside. We need to maximise the benefits of beneficial insects and continue with good integrated pest control. There are grave concerns about the future of bee populations, and I hope we can encourage a Europe-wide research programme into that.
We must engage in public dialogue and make sure apples and pears are part of our culture, history and traditions, wherever they are grown. But if we are to meet inexorable pressures on costs and environmental impact, we are to be totally dependent on research. We need to work together and we all need a strong research and development base.
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