According to the March edition of US-based Belrose's World Apple Report, the volume of apple exports from the top 36 producer countries could grow by more than 30 per cent over the coming decade. The bad news is that imports are forecast to grow at only half that rate.
And worse still, the projections for a widening gap between export availability and import demand outlined in the report are described as 'conservative'.
Imports are projected to increase from 3.599million tonnes in 2001 to 4.58mt in 2010, while exports are projected to rise from 4.158mt to 6.130mt over the same period.
Key factors shaping trade to 2010 are also listed and the rate at which China achieves its export potential is likely to be crucial to the world-wide apple market. 'We expect that China can double its fresh apple exports in the coming decade,' stated the report.
The imbalance between export availability and import demand in the southern hemisphere is also cited as a cause for concern. 'Numerous markets are either small or closed,' stated the report. 'The most promising large market, Brazil, has dramatically reduced its imports and become a growing exporter. That situation is not likely to reverse unless Brazil's economy improves dramatically and rapidly.' Stimulating demand to increase consumption in developed markets such as North America and the EU and a recovery in import demand from non-producing nations such as Indonesia and the Philippines, will also prove vital to redressing the balance, the report forecasts.
'Efforts to open up markets through the WTO, the North American Free Trade Agreement, the EU, Mercosur etc, cannot be allowed to stagnate any further,' concludes the report. 'Valuable years have already been lost while the supply and demand imbalance in apples has worsened. More open markets could help reverse the slide.' For more information visit
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