Following on from the record-breaking hurricane season of 2005, meteorologists forecast another devastating hurricane season for Central and North America and the Caribbean in 2006. The latest details from Tropical Storm Risk suggest there is an 80 per cent probability that 2006 will be in the top third of the most active seasons for Atlantic tropical storm activity.
The predictions from TSR which is part of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College, London, are based early indications as to the speed of trade winds in the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic and sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic.
Last year TSR predicted eight hurricanes. This fell short of the eventual 14, but for 2006, eight hurricanes are once again predicted. Of these four are likely to develop into intense hurricanes, according to TSR’s Prof Mark Saunders. The statistical norms for the past 56 years are 6.2 and 2.7 respectively.
Predictions are similar at the Colorado State University which is forecasting 17 named storms during the six month season during July to November. Of these, forecasters believe nine will probably strengthen into hurricanes, but US landfall is less likely than last season.
“Even though we expect to see the current active period of Atlantic major hurricane activity to continue for another 15 to 20 years,” said Colorado’s William Gray, “it is statistically unlikely that the coming 2006-07 hurricane season, or the seasons that follow, will have the number of major hurricane US landfall events as we have seen in 2004-05.”
No comments yet