I probably stand a good chance of being hung in effigy on a Christmas tree by considering the longer term impact of the economic downturn on the fresh produce industry as the festive season approaches.

Having struggled along the high street in the crowds lured out by already bargain-basement prices, my first thought is things could be worse: and I am grateful that, to my knowledge, none of our readers are Irish pig farmers.

So it looks like the lull before the storm. Credit cards may be under pressure, but there still seems to be cash in the consumer pocket. The real crunch will come in January, historically a time when bills are paid.

As far as the industry is concerned, there are so many considerations - apart from the more simple question of getting credit - that it would take an army of trained economists to come up with the scenario that will prevail, let alone find an answer.

For instance, there are almost weekly unofficial reports of category mangers meeting with their multiple customers to hear of strategies, which in trading terms can usually be translated to price cutting.

Then there were the reports last week of calls from some very substantial players in the Spanish citrus industry that exports should stop, because returns have got so low there is no profit in exporting from one of the most respected and quality-conscious production areas in the world.

It may be a case of emotions running high, but I have a feeling that what is happening to orange and easy-peeler growers is little different from the more muted cries from any other fruit and vegetable category, whether it be at home or abroad. And there are still many fruit surpluses in existence in addition to more industries being created in the developing world, which are eager to export at almost any price.

Nearer to home, also in last week’s FPJ, there are the continuous sounded calls that have echoed over the years from the National Farmers’ Union for a level playing field - in this instance, related to the DEFRA report expressing concern over the fall in home-grown produce taken up by the public sector.

I have never believed that such a halcyon state of affairs can ever be more than a pipe dream, simply because of the fact that competitive producers around the world have entirely different tax and support systems and pay varying rates for their labour, materials and fuel - and all in different climates. The sterling exchange rates against the euro and the dollar are an added dimension, which makes such a status of equality impossible.

Some consolation, I am prepared to admit, should be derived from the fact that many of our own nurseries and farms will be moving towards their peak production periods with the arrival of spring and may be able to cope better being nearest to the market. But the perception usually trundled out that the consumer prefers to buy British is likely to be put to the test beforehand. In fact, I would even say that in times such as these, countries of origin will matter less in the eyes of both buyers and consumers.

Topics