Sadly, all the indications are saying 2008 will not be a vintage year for foodservice. Although there is a lot that appears to be working against us, much of it is hearsay, blatant speculation and the media feeding government rumblings.

Effectively, we are the meat in the sandwich. On one side suppliers are hitting us with cost increases, and on the other the customer is hesitant to accept the changing value of produce. There is nothing new in this scenario, but what is unique for 2008 is the fact that - at the same time - we are being told there is going to be a credit crunch. Our raw material costs are rising - fuel, power, rates - and each sector is affecting the next, for example, the increased cost of wheat is affecting the cost of eggs (grain to feed livestock) and products that rely on compost growing conditions.

Consumer confidence was at its lowest point in 2007. Despite the government cutting interest rates, a speedy recovery is reportedly unlikely. December saw quite a static trade pattern - consumers are now going out and taking advantage of sales, but this false increase does not prove they are confident; to the contrary, they are simply looking for a bargain. That same customer will demand cheaper prices in pubs and restaurants, so foodservice customers are driving down their prices in response. The whole country is seemingly on an economy drive and the consumer has heard it for so long they are now starting to believe in it and adjust their lifestyle accordingly.

This situation is not just a fad, but how long will it take to speed up again and recover?

What’s important in this message is that we are not trying to be bleak, but we wish the government would stop scaremongering. In slightly flippant and bold terms, foodservice should be recession proof. Eating out of the home is no longer considered a luxury. With the rise in the minimum wage, increased time pressures and the focus on convenience, the rates at which we eat out have risen and the average spend has increased to a phenomenal £35 a week, compared with £34 spent in supermarkets.

We recognise the pressures facing us, and suppliers wishing to enter into foodservice should be wary of this overtly challenging time for the sector. They need to look past 2008 and view market entry as a longer-term option. Current prices and government standing makes entry into the market unsustainable - and a situation where competition is discouraged gives a negative outlook for us all.

This long-term view is exactly what we are now asking from our suppliers. Furthermore, we have a realistic dialogue going on with our customers - yes, we are willing to take some of the pain, in exchange for a long-term relationship.

We can account for the price increases in the short term, but none of us would survive if this is met by the customer tendering for business a few months later. What’s needed between supplier, customer and end user is a partnership strategy, to ensure that foodservice does not make the same mistake as retail. Forcing our suppliers to find alternative methods of income because existing products do not bring in a sustainable revenue will have detrimental effects and be felt throughout the supply chain.

So 2008 is threatening to bring an element of doom to the industry, but we are trying to see beyond that. In a competitive marketplace, new suppliers will need to offer their customers innovation and strong grower partnerships. We are not and cannot be as flexible as retail - products cannot be here one day and gone the next. The mantra for 2008 should be “less packaging, more efficiencies”.