Nicholas Saphir this week outlined to the Journal his opinion on the direction the restructure of London's markets might take.

'I expect to see very little happening in August and September. Look at the options [for the future of New Covent Garden],' he said. 'Firstly the Corporation of London and Defra could review their respective positions and come to some sort of mutually acceptable agreement. If this happens, the Corporation could own NCG, it would continue as a market and presumably become a composite site.

'Secondly, the Covent Garden Market Authority (CGMA) could, as it has already said, have a third party investor which is ready to finance the redevelopment of the market site, probably with part of the site handed over for property development. In this scenario, Covent Garden would undoubtedly wholesale meat and fish face-to-face and the Corporation would be obliged to challenge this in court.

'If this happens, and the CGMA wins, the third scenario would cause serious issues for the Corporation. While the face-to-face sale of meat and fish at Nine Elms might not be too significant for Smithfield and Billingsgate, tenants at Spitalfields could say 'what's good for Covent Garden is good for us' and there would then be the problem of one Corporation market challenging the other two.

'If, on the other hand, the Corporation were to win in court, the status quo would be maintained and there is a good chance that London's markets will decline in significance fairly rapidly. Long-term, I believe this would lead to the slow death of markets in the capital.' Saphir added: 'There is a real opportunity to transform NCG into a dynamic catering site for central London, while both Spitalfields and Western International could be developed further as essentially sites for boxed produce, with none of the investment needed to upgrade either site for added value roles. The CGMA has a crucial role to play in the next 18 months. If it pulls it off, the Nine Elms site could become a high quality distribution centre.'

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