Potato growers and suppliers might be relieved that the new season has so far been “uneventful” but now that harvesting is well underway, all eyes are on returns as the £1 billion market swings into action.
Sales got a welcome boost when cooler temperatures set in last month, but supplies are running two weeks late and yields are expected to be lower than last year.
On top of that, the 2.8 per cent that has been shaved off the market’s value in the last 12 months is a reminder that the industry will have its work cut out to secure consumption in the long term.
A heatwave in June and heavy rain in August hit some growers more than others, but there are concerns that if the wet conditions continue it would make harvesting tricky.
For now, a Potato Council lifting survey shows that by the end of August, 23,000 hectares (18 per cent of the crop) had been harvested, even with prolonged and heavy rain disrupting the harvest at one point or another over the last few weeks.
“The new potato season has not been short, but there has not been a lot kicking around and contracts have been run tightly,” says one source. “Prices have been relatively firm, with no stupid swings either way.
“Sales have been a bit flat compared to previous like-for-like years, but this could be the lighter supply. The switch from stored potatoes to the new season was smoother than anyone expected. The expected carryover of the maincrop has not materialised - maybe the estimate was wrong, maybe more was exported. I don’t think anyone could say.
“Crop-wise, everything is running a couple of weeks late so it is difficult to get a handle on quality and yield because there are a lot of variations - even where growers have irrigation, there is some degree of common scab,” he continues. “But it’s still all to play for. There is a lot of confidence out there in terms of growers’ expectations, but they will be looking very hard at returns this year and considering whether they will want to stay with such a high-risk crop when cereal prices are going up.”
The real hurdle this season will be consumption, given that sales remain flat even as many retailers have introduced smaller packs.
Giles Quick, a director at Kantar Worldpanel, insists that it is “easy to underestimate how important potatoes are” but he stresses that “like sandwiches, they are a cornerstone of British food”, up there with the likes of bread and tea.
However, he admits that this might not always be the case as younger consumers are less likely to cook from scratch and eat out more often where “foodservice equals chips”, which does nothing to improve the health perception.
“Potatoes are not viewed as being as healthy as rice and pasta, so the industry has to do more to show how potatoes fit into a healthy lifestyle,” he says. “Another idea would be to show how potatoes can be used for different cuisines, such as Indian food for example. This would probably gain some traction and the more you can show how much potatoes can fit in, the better.
“At the same time, the foodservice sector needs to extend its range so it’s not just chips but alternatives like jacket potatoes and new potatoes. This would help change consumer perception and reposition potatoes as a healthier option.”
Quick believes that, in the long term, convenience in the form of ready peeled and prepared potatoes will come into play as a major factor when it comes to maintaining and increasing consumption.
But the most forward-thinking firms are already planning ahead, even at one of the busiest times in the category’s calendar.
Fenmarc Produce held its sixth annual Innovation Day last month, when more than 100 visitors came to assess field trials on potatoes and other vegetables.
A total of 42 potato varieties from six different trial sites were combined on one tray to show how each variety has performed across the country.
Those singled out as good performers include salad variety Jazzy, early bakers Casablanca and Arizona and the as yet unnamed white potato 2CS07.
Nigel Allam, head of agronomy and seed at Agrimarc, says that he has been encouraged so far this season but that the Innovation Day serves to keep an eye on the future development of the category.
“We invite breeders to enter varieties for each category but we give them specific criteria for what we are looking for,” he explains. “We trial them, always for two seasons, then we make a decision. We are always looking for something better than what we already have to add to our commercial varieties Rudolph and Belana, which are both premium eating quality and were successfully derived from our trials in the last three to four years.
“These varieties are proof that we do bring new varieties into the commercial world and that we support our customers in what they are doing to sell more potatoes.”
AVIKO PREPARES TO RIDE OUT THE STORM
One of the leading potato manufacturers, Aviko is at the forefront of the prepared potato offer for the foodservice industry. Anna Sbuttoni asks Mohammed Essa, general manager of Aviko UK & Ireland since 2008, to tell FPJ more.
How is the prepared potato sector shaping up in the UK?
The sector continues to grow year on year; the value for money, ease of preparation and versatility it offers caterers make it ideal for the demanding foodservice industry. This has resulted in both chilled and frozen products continuing to perform well in what is a tough economic environment.
With potatoes widely considered an excellent source of carbohydrates, vitamins and minerals by consumers, the sector will continue to grow despite the difficulties faced by the industry with this year’s crop.
How valuable is the category in the UK?
There are many figures quoted by different organisations, but we conduct own research as well as looking at information available from external providers. From this, we have a more balanced view of the value of the category and the year-on-year changes in volumes and values for sub-categories.
How has the category fared over the summer?
According to research carried out by Aviko, the category has grown this year, albeit at a slower rate compared to 2009. This is due to higher usage levels in certain sectors of the market while others are experiencing a decline; for instance the QSR (Quick Service Restaurant) market is very robust and continues to grow when compared to the high-end restaurant sector as consumers trade down to gain greater value when dining out. We expect this trend to continue for some time, after the coalition government’s announcement of a subdued growth in UK GDP.
Which are the most popular prepared potato formats?
Aviko focuses on delivering products and services that meet the needs of the foodservice industry; this is achieved by listening to our customers, monitoring trends and having an in-depth understanding of the market. Caterers are seeking value through convenience, minimum prep times and minimal wastage; while customers are demanding new and innovative offerings that offer something different when eating out.
Last year, Aviko launched the new gratin range, which has been very successful as it appeals to consumers looking for something special and to chefs wishing to quickly update their menus with a more premium offering. This year, we have invested heavily in promoting our hash browns and mash potato range, which are performing very well, and recently launched a range of gluten free spicy wedges that tap in to the popularity of hotter and more adventurous dishes.
What is your development team working on?
In this economic period, both chefs and consumers are looking for value for money and quality; our development team are working on a number of projects that will continue to meet these needs and drive innovation in the market. Unfortunately, due to the very nature of the food industry we keep all our NPD confidential until the time of launch - FPJ readers will have to watch this space!
What’s next for the UK prepared potato market?
I think we can expect more of the same; the prepared potato market will continue to ride out the economic storm thanks to the value for money, convenience and quality it brings to menus.
Aviko is committed to driving the market through NPD, supporting chefs with a range of pre-prepared potato products that can be cooked and served in a matter of minutes and without the sacrifice of the quality of the dish; recipe suggestions that are not only delicious and simple to make but provide a breakdown on cost and preparation times to help caterers plan their menus; and point-of-sale to promote dishes to customers.
Consumers are demanding value for money and as a result caterers need to produce quality food for the price. Aviko’s range of products provides caterers with a host of solutions that remove the need for costly, skilled labour and continues to add value to menus and boost profits. This allows chefs to concentrate on other aspects of the meal, without having to worry about the quality of the potato element of the dish.
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