Plotting the course of the fresh produce industry over the next 12 months is, to my mind, rather like reviewing any one of the countless blockbuster fantasy movies that filled our festive screens.

Mirroring the travails of the fruit and veg trade, the movie’s plot may initially seem complicated, but there is generally a fair chance that despite a competitive struggle between the heroes, most of the players will survive to see the final curtain, even if some are lost on the way, regardless of their apparent strength of character.

During the journey new friends will be found and new relationships will be formed, based largely on the opportunity to achieve greater strength - continuity of quality and volume - but also an ability to stand out from the rest of the cast in the final reckoning - exclusivity.

OK, back to the real world before the analogy dies a death. My prognosis is that packaging will continue to be a major point of difference, becoming smaller, larger or of distinctive enough materials to maintain a point of difference. An additional element may well be the greater emphasis on being biodegradable as the latest means by which the industry can show shoppers it is eco-friendly. And the subtexts used to describe our products are bound to take on greater importance too. The common enemy will be either inflation or deflation depending on what side of the counter you stand. Or, out in the fields and orchards back down the supply chain, the effects of freak weather conditions and global warming are unlikely to blow away.

There is still vast international over-production of deciduous and citrus fruit, with the market moving ever more swiftly towards new varieties whose place in the retail firmament may last for less than a decade. In volume terms alone the impact of the enlarged European Union may additionally affect crops as diverse as soft fruit and vegetables.

There will also be the unforeseen highlights when consumer signposts point suddenly towards the popularity of “new” products, although these may also be either short-lived or eventually absorbed into the general produce range.

For example, when I worked in the old Covent Garden, the Azores was regarded as the pinnacle of perfection when it came to fresh pineapples, before South and West Africa and then the Caribbean stole the scene. Avocados, kiwifruit, mangoes and limes were once regarded with the sort of excitement which can now only be generated in the press with purple carrots and black tomatoes. Only time tells the true winners.

There is real hope that organics and prepared produce will continue to flourish - see opposite - encouraging all of us to continue down the fresh produce road.

On arrival at the road’s end, the success of the participants will be judged not just by reaching their goal, but the level of profitability they have been able to achieve.

For when all is said and done that is the real prize - how many will get there before the year turns again?

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