Just a week from now it’s Burns Night – a celebration of one of Scotland’s most famous sons.

It’s often a very good day for Scotland’s fresh produce sector too. A couple of years ago, Asda reported a 700 per cent increase in sales of Scottish Kestrel potatoes and a similar uplift in pre-packed ‘neeps and tatties’ (mashed potatoes and mashed turnips). Naturally, haggis also flew off the shelves, as did whisky – the other two staples in a traditional Burns Supper.

But it isn’t just 25 January– the poet Robert Burns’ birthday – when people buy Scottish produce. And it isn’t just in Scotland. The country may have been once tarnished as “the land of Irn Bru and battered Mars Bars”. But no more. Now the marketing men – and the government – believe Scotland is “the land of food and drink”. It’s a country with a fantastic natural larder, they say, and one that the whole world wants a bite of.

Indeed, sales of Scottish produce have rocketed in recent years, with food and drink second only to oil and gas as the country’s biggest economic assets. The latest figures from the Scottish National Party (SNP) showed the sector to be worth £12.4bn in 2010, just shy of the £12.5bn target set for 2017. In 2007, the figure stood at £10bn. “We’re showing the best growth of any sector in the country,” says James Withers, chief executive of Scotland Food & Drink, the body charged with meeting the targets.

Most notable, he says, has been the dramatic increase in exports, with revenues up from £3.7bn in 2007 to £5.4bn in 2011. Whisky has led the charge – £4 in every £5 of exports is in a whisky bottle – but fresh produce sales are also rising steadily, up from £25m to £62m in the same period. “I think the quality of our food is being recognised increasingly in a world where people are being more choosy about what they consume,” says Rob Gibson, an SNP MSP who also convenes the Rural Affairs, Climate Change and Environment committee.

The Scottish government rarely needs a second chance to recite the figures – not least because they are better than those down south. “Food exports have rocketed by 63 per cent since 2007,” boasted rural affairs secretary Richard Lochhead at a conference organised by The Scotsman in September. “And I don’t want to rub it in but it’s worth noting that growth of food exports from our country have outperformed that of England, Northern Ireland and Ireland.”

So why would it want to risk all that with independence? After all, wouldn’t independence alienate some of Scotland’s key markets – notably England? Or would it enhance “brand Scotland” still further, allowing companies to target even more lucrative markets in China and Japan?

“It is inevitable that we will experience an increasing backlash to the Scottish independence hype, with buyers in England coming under pressure to choose more English produce to fill shelves,” wrote Maitland Mackie, the head of the Mackies of Scotland ice-cream company and one of the few in the industry to have revealed his feelings publicly. “In an independent Scotland, our businesses will become foreign businesses in the eyes of 90 per cent of our current potential UK customers,” he added in a circular sent to 500 Scottish food and drink businesses.

A look at the figures suggests his fears are well-founded: over half the food produced in Scotland is sold to England. What Mackie fears is that the English will, in the event of a ‘yes’ vote in 2014’s plebiscite, become xenophobic. Mackie polled the 500 businesses he wrote to – just 100 responded, but of those 71.5 per cent expressed ‘deep concern’ over the impact of independence on Scotland’s food and drink industry.

The counter argument, of course, is that independence will enhance the Scottish brand. The SNP described Mackie’s comments as “scaremongering”. “Independence will give Scotland an even stronger platform to promote Scottish food and drink,” says Mike MacKenzie, MSP and member of the Economy, Energy and Tourism committee. The SNP’s Gibson also feels independence will be “very good” for the food and drink sector.

Such soundbites are easy to come by, but what isn’t so forthcoming is evidence to back them up. And this is creating the kind of fear that Mackie’s, albeit biased, survey construes. After all, 2014 isn’t a long way off and there are currently so many unknowns.

Andrew Stirling owns Stirling Potatoes (Stirfresh), based in Montrose. Its grows, washes, packs and processes potatoes, fruit and vegetables. He says: “We want to know things like what the tax situation will be and whether the corporation tax will be reduced to help attract businesses north of the border, or if there will be any tax breaks to help us improve exports.”

Stirling is one of the few that is willing to talk about independence – not whether he is a “yes man” or a “no man”, but that it’s a debate the fresh produce sector needs to get involved in. Others are not so keen.

The reluctance is, in part, understandable given the unknowns – for every story touting the benefits of an independent Scotland, there follows a damning critique.

The most high profile surrounds the country’s position in the EU. No one has yet suggested that Scotland will not be welcome in the EU, but the process might not be as simple as SNP leader Alex Salmond and his ministers have suggested. A comment by EC president José Manuel Barroso – “if one part of a country wants to become an independent state, of course as an independent state it has to apply to the European membership according to the rules, that is obvious” – brought the “Yes Scotland” campaign to a shuddering halt in December.

Europe is an important market for Scotland – “our intention, unlike some elements down south, is to be part of a European market for high-quality food,” says Gibson – with PricewaterhouseCoopers having calculated that a breakdown of the Eurozone would see exports falling by 5.3 per cent. The food and drink sector would be hit hard with falls of 8.1 per cent and 11.2 per cent respectively.

“We currently export around 70 per cent of our food to the Eurozone, but this could pose a real threat to the industry,” explains Kenny Wilson, partner at PwC. “With low growth prospects in the UK and Eurozone markets, the most successful firms will be those who develop a strategy focused on emerging markets. China, Japan, India and Brazil are already exhibiting a huge appetite for the range of high-quality, delicious products that Scotland’s larder offers.”

The Commonwealth Games and Ryder Cup, both in 2014, will provide an opportunity to showcase this further. Some £1m has already been allocated to maximise the return from the events and carry out Scotland’s 2014 food and drink “action plan”. One producer says all eyes will be on whether the big foodservice companies who win the big contracts will buy Scottish rather than source from their central distribution hubs.

The other hurdle, says James Chadwick, head of food and beverage at Grant Thornton in Scotland, will be “getting people out of Glasgow and Gleneagles and into a wider Scotland”. This month it had a helping hand from an unlikely ally when the US news channel CNN named Scotland as this year’s top travel destination. The closing sequence of the new James Bond film, Skyfall, set in Glencoe, had a part to play – and one can only wonder what the levels of interest would have been had Bond chosen Scotch Whisky over Heineken for his new tipple.

Arguably, whisky doesn’t need the support. “The challenge is pushing past those sectors [like whisky and seafood] as areas of growth and identifying others to take on the role, such as the fruit and veg sector,” explains Chadwick. Indeed, exports of fresh produce may be up to £62m, but £160m worth are still imported, leaving a deficit.

The elements have not made life easy this year, with the weather as great an unknown as independence. It must be remembered, as Scotland Food and Drink’s Withers points out, that much of the food policies have already been devolved. Come November, the country will at least have some more answers, with the government expected to publish its full economic plan for Scotland if the public were to vote yes. The latest indicators suggest that won’t be the case – an Ipsos MORI/Times poll in October found that 30 per cent would vote ‘yes’ compared to 58 per cent ‘no’.

But as Robert Burns once wrote: “There is no such uncertainty as a sure thing.” —

BRAND SCOTLAND FORGES AHEAD

Scottish fresh produce is in demand at the moment, with Scotty Brand just one that’s thriving. “We had tremendous success with our strawberries and raspberries across the UK in the summer,” says marketing manager Michael Jarvis. “Consumers recognise that the season may be short [especially for raspberries], but it’s worth waiting for Scottish produce as it’s fresher, generates fewer food miles and tastes better than out-of-season imports.”

Business is also good at Tio, which produces organic root crops in Moray. The company has launched two new brands in the past two years, including Soil & Seed, an organic box scheme with Tesco.com.

Tesco invests some £2m on local sourcing because “that’s what our customers tell us they want”, says head of local sourcing Sarah Mackie. Its local buying teams have also made the most of opportunities, with Mackie having found producers to start growing leeks. New circular signs that read “I’m Scottish” are being introduced at point of sale and the “Scotland’s favourites” fortnight helps to promote popular Scottish products in all its Scottish stores.

Mackie says £325m of Scottish products are sold each year, with £9m of that during the two-week campaign. But there’s another £1.6bn of Scottish products sold south of the border. —

It is inevitable that we will experience a backlash to the Scottish independence hype, with buyers in England under pressure to choose English products

We want to know things like what the tax situation will be and whether the corporation tax will be reduced to attract businesses north of the border