Consumers will demand “value for values” in their grocery experiences over the next few years as the impact of the recession looks set to leave a lasting legacy, according to new research.
Tim Maton, senior consumer analyst at IGD, told delegates at a meeting of the Chartered Institute of Marketing’s Food, Drink & Agriculture Group this week that the grocery landscape has changed considerably over the last couple of years and it is “vital” that brands, suppliers and the agricultural community keep a close eye on shopper behaviour in the near future.
Presenting findings from an IGD report entitled Shoppers in 2012 - is your business ready for them?, Maton predicted that the future will combine a legacy impact from the recession and a return to shopper aspirations. “It is too easy to think that either we tear up the rule book because there is a new shopper generation, or that people will forget the recession, will have short memories and will go back to their old aspirations,” he said. “But we have seen evidence of both, and the future will be a mix.”
Price has become a key driver for shoppers in the recession, said Maton. “Shoppers want more promotions and more discount stores,” he said. “They have been jolted out of their shopping habits and many have invested their own time and effort into offsetting rising costs.”
IGD found that in 2012, shoppers expect to be more careful in their food choices - but without compromising on their food experience. “Value will remain integral,” said Maton. “But so will values. Shoppers haven’t compromised on their values and don’t intend to, even if things get worse. They want value for values.”
The trend for ethical shopping has continued apace irrespective of the recession, Maton revealed, especially on such issues as local food, high animal welfare products and products that support Fairtrade.
“The future for organics is more challenging than for other ethical themes,” said Maton, whose research indicates that 15 per cent of shoppers will look to buy more organic food by 2012, whereas 11 per cent expect to buy less.
“There is a core of loyal organic shoppers, but others are drifting from organics. They are not performing a u-turn on their ethics, but are finding more value in other ethical concepts. It may be that whatever their reason for buying organic in the first place - for example, animal welfare - another option might support their narrow objectives more clearly, and maybe more cheaply.”
Other trends identified by the IGD research suggest that the recession has “paid dividends” for private labels and discounter brands - but that there will still be a place for established brands in the future. However, their appeal has shifted in the eyes of the consumer.
“Traditionally, brands have been about providing something innovative or something to aspire to,” said Maton. “But now it is about reliability, consistent taste and quality and wide distribution.”
IGD data also suggests that by 2012, shoppers expect to be buying across a range of different channels. “There is renewed interest in alternative channels, such as farmers’ markets and neighbourhood stores,” said Maton. “Shoppers are really beginning to vote for diversity in their formats of stores.”
The shoppers of the future will also seek genuine value in promotions, which are “integral” in shaking them out of their established buying patterns and getting them to try something new, said Maton.
“The most popular promotion type is still buy one, get one free - the BOGOF,” said Maton. However, the deal type polarises shoppers into “for” and “against” camps, the IGD research found.
“Going forward, there will be an evolution of the BOGOF,” added Maton, who cited Tesco’s recent move into BOGOF - Later as a clear example.
