A restructure of the pricing policy of Channel Tunnel operator Eurotunnel, from January 1, will ask hauliers to forecast how much they are likely to use the service over a 12-month time span.
Firms that are deemed to be sending either too many or too few trucks through the tunnel could be in line for a charge of £750, which is up to four times the existing rate for each trip.
If forecasts are accurate, hauliers will be rewarded with tariffs of around £200 a trip. There will be an in-built margin for error of 25 per cent.
Dirk Broek, director of Eurotunnel's Freight Division, said the move would "better aligning capacity to customers' demand" and therefore improve service levels.
But lorry operators are threatening to switch to ferry services if they are made to predict their likely travel through the Channel Tunnel.
One said: "Almost every haulier I've spoken to that has been approached has said as from January 1 it won't be any good to them and they won't be using it."
Eurotunnel, which has debts of £6.4bn, said its change in policy would enable it to run fewer, but fuller, trains if it knew in advance how many lorries would be heading through the tunnel.
Donald Armour, of the Freight Transport Association, said Eurotunnel should be "offering incentives", rather than "penalising" customers for not meeting their predictions.
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