The squeeze is already being felt on the wholesale markets and one of the UK's leading importers Poupart forecasts the situation will continue. 'Supplies from South Africa are going to be tight as Japan is taking big quantities and the crop is coming off the trees smaller and not in the quantities growers had thought earlier in the year,' said Poupart's Stewart Abbey.

White supplies are already feeling the pinch - the Far East is a big market for Marsh - but the situation is similar on pinks. South Africa is not a huge producer of pink varieties and for the time being the supply position on reds is the easiest of the three types.

According to Martin Dunnett of Capespan, three factors have contrived to make this a particularly tight situation in 2003. 'Volumes of grapefruit in South Africa are declining as over the years, returns have been disappointing and some of the larger estates in the north of the country are switching into other crops,' he explained. 'This combines with the lateness of the season and the strength of the Japanese market to produce a triple whammy.' At this point in the supply calendar, South Africa is the dominant source for grapefruit and only considerably smaller volumes are available from fellow southern-hemisphere suppliers Argentina and Uruguay.

Abbey forecasts that although the market is adequately supplied this month, by August the position will be tougher. 'The situation will be tight until Cuba and Florida come on stream,' he warned.

The situation for pigmented fruit might ease up slightly earlier as Mexico should start its supplies in August with crops - mainly of Star Ruby - from the Yucatan.

An on-off source for the UK over the years, Mexican growers and exporters could just get lucky this year with their Florida-style fruit given the global supply situation and their 'fortuitous marketing window,' concluded Abbey.

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