Grapes are likely to be short this Christmas, at a time when retailers will be looking to run festive promotions.
Buyers are frustrated that they will not be able to find the right volumes on the market, but suppliers warn that stocking even standard levels could prove difficult by late December.
This comes as a result of a late season in Namibia, which is set to cause a gap in supply this Christmas just as the sector looked to be getting back into its stride after a difficult year.
“Usually, the UK is able to get early stocks because it pays more, but this year there will be a tight supply as Namibia is late so there’ll be a gap in December,” one supplier tells FPJ. “It’s looking tricky for supply.”
It has been a challenging 12 months for grape suppliers after a series of setbacks in key producing countries. Strong winds meant South Africa exported three million fewer cartons of table grapes than the previous year, for example. Frost and snow hit Chile’s main table grape-producing area of Copiapó.
Kantar Worldpanel figures for the last 12 weeks have shown the UK market facing a slip in expenditure of 1.8 per cent on the same period in 2010, with prices down by 5.8 per cent. Volumes in the same period jumped by 4.2 per cent.
To put this in context, figures for the last 52 weeks show that the market has grown by 1.3 per cent in value over that time, while volume fell by 6.5 per cent in a period that saw more than 191,000 tonnes sold.
The slide in volumes overall has been put down to smaller punnett sizes, which means that less fruit has moved through the system.
One supplier told FPJ that the improvement in the third quarter was down to a steady season from Egypt, a reasonable supply from Greece and despite some discolouration, good red grape volumes from Spain.
“The weather at the end of the season meant that the colour was milky green and these were mixed into the red packets,” one supplier says of Crimson, which demands a large differential between the temperature at day and at night.
“Crimson is a wonderful variety with a wonderful flavour, but in some areas it’s difficult to get it coloured up. Any grape in some warmer areas is difficult to colour. It’s always a challenge to meet colour specs in warmer areas.”
Another supplier agrees discolouration had been an issue in the past few weeks but says the impact varied depending on retailers’ strategies.
“You can bring stock from the US,” he explains. “For example, Morrisons has a pro-American strategy and also does hard-hitting promotions.
“But grapes are an impulse purchase,” he continues. “They are not like apples and bananas, which are on shopping lists. You need to display them well and Morrisons has always been good at that.”
Despite fears for Christmas grape supply, one supplier says there is a lot of fruit around now because rain in Brazil has seen stocks picked early.
In fact, the switchover from the northern to the southern hemisphere is said to be going well and looking strong for both red and white grapes in early December. However, one insider warns that when the season reaches its peak early next year there may not be the abundance of stock to provide the reductions that British shoppers usually enjoy.
“The UK is not the first choice for many countries,” he admits. “There’s been a realisation among growers that they need to spread their produce more widely. A market like South Africa still requires a big representation in the UK but the fruit no longer pours in.
“The supply is stable to rising, but there isn’t the influx we used to see. That extra 10 per cent is now going to places like China.”
This is backed by figures from South Africa following the weather problems last year, which show thatwhile shipments to the UK and northern Europe fell, supply to the Far East and Middle East increased significantly on the previous year.
And as for the new year? Watch this space.-
PATIENTLY PURSUING THE PERFECT GRAPE
Sun World International is increasing grape exports under licence to the UK and Europe by expanding its production base in Spain and Brazil. Tom Bonnett talks to Johan Jooste, vice-president of international licensing, about achieving growth responsibly.
Sun World has spent many years building its reputation in the grape category. The US firm made its first foray into the industry back in 1976, as a packer and marketer before expanding its operations in the 1980s when consumer appetite for fresher, better tasting produce increased.
The company developed the seedless Sugrathirteen, Sugrasixteen and Sugraeighteen varieties through its own research and development programme.
This month, Sun World has taken a further step by granting additional marketer licences for grape production in Spain’s Murcia region and the Petrolina area of Brazil. The deals will allow Sun World to build on its reputation in the UK and European markets but Jooste is restrained about the potential for growth that the deals offer.
“Part of our philosophy is not to overproduce,” he says. “We want to capitalise on the positive traits of the varieties and supply the demand, not go overboard or beyond the demand.
“We would rather concentrate on the varieties we think are distinctive in terms of size, colour and flavour - particularly flavour. That’s one of our main objectives,” he continues.
“One can say we’ve maybe doubled our capacity, but this will not materialise until a year’s time or two or three years’ time. It’s a phasing in, it won’t happen overnight. If you look three to five years into the future, we will significantly increase the potential that we already have.
“But we try to be responsible in terms of the volumes that get produced.”
Another key consideration for Jooste is producing grapes that suit the packaging that retailers prefer. “There’s a tendency towards punnet packing in some markets and obviously, we take that into consideration as a selection criteria in our breeding programme. Just like the size or the sweetness or the colours, the market retailers define what they want on the shelf and as breeders we must come forward with that, with varieties that suit this specific demand,” he says.
“We also need grapes that comfortably pack into punnets,” he adds. “You do get bunches that are big and inflexible and it’s difficult to pack that into a punnet. So the breeder will include in his selection criteria varieties with a bunch size of, say, 400g or 500g. That’s part of the research to satisfy the demands of both retailers and consumers.
“Fruit produced in South Africa and Chile have to travel long distances to international markets. It can take a couple of weeks to get to the market and it needs to have that ability to travel.
“We breed varieties with the aim of satisfying demands of the consumer along with the trade on one hand and also the grower that has to produce the variety on the other. It has to produce consistently and profitably.”
So what’s next for the business? Sun World is working on three white, red and black seedless varieties and expects to send test volumes into the market very soon. The varieties are still in the testing phase but Jooste said late season black variety Sugrathirtyfour as well as the late season Sugrathirtyfive are “the next generation” that will feature in the markets soon.-
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