According to the South African Table Grape Industry (SATI), the Northern Province has already packed about 70 per cent of its total white seedless volumes. These vines are covered by plastic to enable the early start but have been running about a week later compared to previous seasons.
“There has been rain in the region which has kept temperatures cooler and caused the crop to mature at a slower rate, and take longer to achieve the high sugar levels required by our minimum standards,” says Elaine Alexander of SATI.
In total, SATI forecasts that the Northern Province will pack out some 3.5 million to 4m cartons. Orange River, where growers are already packing at full strength, is forecast to achieve some 14m-15m cartons. “The weather conditions are looking good,” says Alexander. “This year has seen the best quality of recent years.”
As far as UK importers are concerned, South Africa is not hitting the peak of its season a moment too soon. “It has been difficult across the piece,” says Martin Dunnett of Capespan. “We are expecting more arrivals by the end of this week and by week 50 we should be into reasonable volumes. By Christmas week there will be enough to satisfy our programmes - that was a worry early on but it does not look like it will be a problem now.”
These sentiments are echoed by Mark Kidd at Richard Hochfeld. “The market has been desperate for the fruit but up until now, there has not really been enough volume to get it away,” he says. “Apart from the odd container already in, our supplies will start rolling in next week and by the week beginning December 17, we will be into full volumes and a lot more comfortable.”
The tightness of supply has been a particular problem on red grape. “Red has been in shorter supply and early reds from South Africa and Namibia were particularly wanted,” says Dunnett. “Brazil does not have a big supply of red seedless and US Crimson suffered the effects of severe heat in California over the summer so unlike last year, they just haven’t had the volume. Not only has there been virtually no export from the US, they have also drawn in volumes out of other countries such as Brazil.” Capespan has been working with fruit from Namibia for three weeks already this season and the source is looking very strong for consistent volumes throughout its window.
Looking ahead to the season’s true peak in January and February, there is still a question mark over the volumes that can be expected, as forecasts from the Western Cape are not finalised. But previous seasons’ experience is likely to play a role in the amount of fruit coming forward. “There has been a lot of thinking among growers this year,” says Dunnett. “Returns were affected adversely by the exchange rate and oversupply depressed prices early on. A lot of growers have therefore thought they would dry their Thompson Seedless for the raisin market and so they have prepared their vines for drying. So in the peak for the Orange River in mid-January to mid-February, the season could be in better balance.”
Of course a lot will depend on what happens with fruit coming out of Chile during the new year, but with early volumes of Prime and Sugraone from the Orange River up on last year’s levels and production being taken out of the fresh market in the January to February period, volumes overall from the Orange River will be similar to lat year. “After Christmas the retailers all try to drive volumes through promotion,” says Kidd. “The success of the whole post-Christmas period really hinges on how well, the transition with Chile is managed.”
Growers are also trying to produce more reds, particularly Crimson for late season availability. Flame from the Orange River begins next week and runs until the end of January while Crimson will come on stream after than and run through February when red supplies switch into Flame from the Western Cape followed by Crimson from the same region.
Producers in the Western Cape - which includes the Hex and Paarl regions - are optimistic for their season. They have had a good, cool winter and report that their early fruit is progressing well. Renowned for black seeded supplies, the focus of the region is therefore not as UK-oriented as others in South Africa, but Prime and Crimson also feature in the mix. And senders all mention good berry size across the portfolio of varieties given the diligence of growers in thinning.
But overall in South Africa there have been some tough lessons to take on board. Senders have been looking for more outlets for their fruit and accusations of oversupplying traditional markets have led them to look further afield and stick to programmes in established destinations such as the UK. Sadly, this year it will mean that some of the best fruit will not be exported as growers have already decided to direct it to the raisin market.
The rand is also in a more favourable position for South African exporters this year and it is now trading at R14 to sterling. “It will encourage exports again,” says Dunnett. “But growers will be hesitant, as it could change during the season and it is still a risk for them.”
One area where there is slowly emerging potential for South African grapes to make more of a mark is in segmentation of the market. Dunnett reports that Midnight Beauty volumes should double this year to 160,000-200,000 cartons. Production of this premium variety is focused mainly on the Paarl and Hex areas although there is also some production in the Orange River. “I believe that segmentation will prove a real driver for new varieties,” says Dunnett. “Grapes have been a bit slow off the blocks in the premium market, but it is a line that naturally it can deliver in this respect.” Dunnett sees the market falling into premium, standard and value, but points out that growing a premium variety and getting the marketing right is not straightforward. “We pioneered Muscat Seedless, but it was very difficult to grow and a struggle for growers to make profitable,” he says. “Availability is also a very difficult thing to get right.” Premium varieties have high sugar levels and are therefore harder to handle post harvest and more likely to need airfreight, all of which makes growers a bit wary of the risk involved.
But with anecdotal evidence suggesting that loose white seedless grape sales are down about 10 per cent year on year, the suggestion is that there are opportunities not just for premium fruit, but also for punneting. “Anything that can be packed at source looks promising, for example 500g punnets of standard fruit,” says Kidd. “I believe there is growth there in the medium term as consumers are attracted by the convenience.”
This poses something of a challenge in terms of cost efficiency. With fruit packed in punnets, cartons can take only 5kg as opposed to 9kg of loose fruit. Cartons can be made as shallow as possible to maximise volumes per pallet and cost savings of packing at source must be carefully weighed against possibly higher freight rates
Dunnett believes that sources such as South Africa, the US and Chile are in a good position to get involved in production of premium fruit and Capespan, for example already has an agreement with Sun World to grow its new varieties in South Africa, along with Colors and Dole.
But as for the immediate prospects for the sector, the process of consolidation in the South African industry is likely to continue. “Naturally the best growers will rise to the top,” says Dunnett.”And this year will prove crucial to the future for a number of producers. The next three months will be key. Right now in the market, everyone’s just battening down the hatches and trying to keep prices at the right level.”
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