Ever since the cost of food rose at an unprecedented rate in 2008, supermarkets have done a pretty good job of keeping a lid on shelf prices. In fact relentless promotions, two-for and bogof deals have, in many cases, pushed prices down.

But we could be on the cusp of a new wave of price inflation, particularly in fresh produce, with several of our stories this week indicating that an increased cost of fruit and veg is on the cards.

In top fruit, the latest World Apple & Pear Association figures reveal the extent of trouble facing growers across Europe (p1), where higher returns are desperately needed for reinvestment in orchards.

In the mushroom category, increases of up to 20 per cent are predicted as the high price of straw sends production costs skywards (p4).

In the field vegetable sector the tasty prices being paid for wheat at the moment are tempting growers to switch production if they don’t see better margins.

Across a wide range of categories, climatic extremes and freak natural occurrences have contracted supply, while other international markets are competing ever more closely for the UK’s share of the world’s fruit and veg offer. It all points to higher prices in the medium term.

The latest British Retail Consortium data shows that fruit price inflation is at its highest rate since April 2009, while veg prices are on the up after two months of deflation.

In these times of austerity, retailers are loathe to put up prices, but increases on at least a number of lines look inevitable in the near future.

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