Florida citrus growers are facing an increased probability of frost damage this winter according to climate researchers at Florida State University (FSU).
"We have looked at the occurrences of really severe freezes in Florida in the past and they have happened when we have not experienced either an El Niño or La Niña weather phenomenon in what we call a neutral year," FSU's David Zierden told freshinfo. "El Niño brings rainfall and cooler temperatures over the whole winter in Florida and La Niña has the opposite effect with less rainfall and warmer temperatures. A winter with neither phenomenon, is most vulnerable to extreme freezes."
Zierden had found that there are about 12 major freezes that have struck in citrus production regions in Florida in the past under these neutral conditions that are prevailing again this year.
"We are not saying it is definitely going to happen," said Zierden. "But the probability is increased from a one in 20 chance to a one in six."
The message to producers is clear. "A prudent grower should have frost protection systems in place every year," said Zierden. "But this year there could be a freeze as bad as in 1997 or 1989 so it is especially important."
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