A report from Aston University finds a 27 per cent drop in UK export value and 32 per cent drop in imports from EU since 2021
A new report has revealed the negative impact of the UK’s Trade and Cooperation Agreement with the EU, in which exports for most sectors have decreased since January 2021.
According to the Centre for Business Prosperity at Aston University, monthly data has shown not only a 27 per cent drop in UK exports since 2021, but a 32 per cent reduction in imports to and from the EU between 2021 and 2023.
The researchers analysed monthly import and export between the UK and the EU from January 2017 to December 2023, which was then separated into pre and post January 2021 when the agreement came into force.
The new report, titled ‘Unbound: UK Trade Post Brexit’, also shows a 33 per cent reduction in the variety of goods exported, with the agricultural, textiles, clothing and materials sectors worst impacted.
This includes “substantial” declines in both export value and the variety of products exported.
However, the data found that other sectors such as ships and furniture have demonstrated noticeable increases in import product variety.
Since the trade deal came into force, the UK government has negotiated several trade agreements, but the EU remains its largest trade partner.
The researchers have now made recommendations for policy interventions to mitigate some of the impacts. These include negotiating sector-specific deals, engaging with individual EU countries, and working on reducing non-tariff barriers.
Lead author at Aston University, Professor Jun Du said: “The Trade and Cooperation Agreement introduced substantial barriers and there are ongoing and marked declines in the value and variety of UK exports and imports.
“Without urgent policy interventions, the UK’s economic position and place in the global market will continue to weaken.”
He continued: “The TCA has introduced considerable barriers to UK-EU trade, particularly through increased non-tariff measures (NTMs).
“Addressing these issues through targeted improvements to the TCA is crucial to ensuring that UK businesses remain competitive in the European market. A structured, multi-faceted approach is necessary.”
The report’s co-author, Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo commented: “Our findings indicate a decoupling of the UK from key EU final goods markets, accompanied by a shift in UK supply chains toward geographically closer EU trading partners for exports and smaller countries for imports.
“This shift raises concerns and underscores the urgent need for a strategic reconfiguration of UK supply chains to maintain competitiveness.”
