The EU apple crop is forecast to decline seven per cent in 2009 on 2008 and an overhang of southern hemisphere fruit may cause problems in the first weeks of the season, according to figures released at last week’s Prognosfruit conference in Maastricht.
The main reason for the decline is a forecast 19 per cent slump in output from Poland, the EU’s largest producer. Italy is expecting a two per cent drop in output to 2.1 million tonnes, in line with the average of the last three years. And France is expecting a recovery in volume to the tune of five per cent and a crop of some 1.6mt.
In the UK, an improvement of six per cent in last season’s volumes and the largest crop this century is forecast, with some 214,000 tonnes of fruit.
EU-wide by variety, Golden Delicious is by far Europe’s favourite variety and output is likely to reach 2.407mt, a four per cent decline on 2008 volume. Gala is the second-ranked in volume terms and its crop is forecast to be broadly in line with last season at 1.037mt. Braeburn is expected to climb by eight per cent on both last season’s result and the three-year average and Cripps Pink once again continues its steady climb after last year’s blip, with a 10 per cent year-on-year increase to 140,000t.
At the meeting in the Netherlands, delegates were also informed of the state of play with southern hemisphere apples, which look set to close their season with a crop some four per cent up on last year and six per cent above the three-year average.
Alessandro Dalpiaz, president of the World Apple & Pear Association, said: “The likely carry-over of last season’s apple stocks in various countries might create difficult market conditions at the beginning of the season. Nevertheless, the lower crop forecast, particularly in Poland, may lead to a recovery of the market towards the end of the year. A prompt finalisation of the southern-hemisphere season, which so far shipped fewer apples to the EU, will also be an important factor for EU apple market stability. Developments in Russia - the EU’s most important export-market outlet - will be crucial for the success for the upcoming campaign.”
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