El Niño weather conditions could return this spring, according to the Climate Prediction Center in Maryland. 'We expect El Niño conditions to be present in the tropical Pacific within the next three to six months,' the centre's Vernon Kousky told freshinfo.com. 'If these conditions develop, the first areas to be affected will be those in the immediate area.' This would mean drier than normal conditions in Indonesia and eastern Australia and wetter than normal conditions over islands in the central and equatorial Pacific and possibly along the west coast of South America.

But if these conditions, brought about by warm currents in the Pacific heating the air above them, develop at a faster rate, the area they affect could be greater. 'There is a possibility of having wetter than normal conditions over the south-west US and drier than normal conditions over north-east Brazil during March to May 2002,' said Kousky.

Drier conditions may then develop over parts of Central America and the Caribbean from June to September this year, although Atlantic hurricane activity would be expected to be less than normal between June and September, he added. There would also be an impact on South America with eastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil all likely to experience wetter than normal conditions during June to December.

If El Niño should continue into next winter, it would get drier than usual over northern South America, southern Africa, north-east Australia and parts of Indonesia. Whereas it would be wetter than usual over the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico in the US and warmer than usual over most of Canada and the Great Plains and Midwest of the US.

If these conditions do occur the impact on the production of many major fresh produce lines is likely to be significant, as it was during the 1997-98 El Niño. Production for export of bananas, citrus, grapes, stone fruit tropical and top fruit lines could all potentially be affected as could production of many vegetable lines for local consumption in a number of countries world-wide.

Topics