The International Research Institute Research Institute for Climate Prediction has found that the El Niño weather pattern is unlikely to rear its head before July this year. Studies at the institute published this week show that there is a 65 per cent chance for neutral weather patterns up to the end of July, although the chance of neutral conditions throughout August are reduced to 50 per cent.
Monitoring of the Pacific Ocean earlier this year in February had heightened fears of a recurrence of the weather phenomenon. The ocean was unexpectedly warm and so reduced air-pressure readings between Tahiti and Australia to their lowest levels in 22 years.
El Niño is typically caused by rising temperatures in the Pacific. This, along with a drop in pressure and changes in trade winds can shift warm waters eastwards moving clouds along equatorial waters and so reducing rainfall levels across part of Asia and Australasia.
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