Early indications are for a 15.5 million -16m carton New Zealand apple crop in 2009, but Ian Palmer, chairman of industry body Pipfruit NZ is urging caution.

He said: “While we still have some factors in our favour, like exchange rate, there are still some warning signs ahead. Washington state has released its last forecast crop at more than 113m boxes. This surpasses their previous best of 104m boxes…We have to be mindful of watching the sales rates of this large crop, because if they are too slow, it could well have a significant impact on us.”

Palmer added that the official national NZ crop estimate would not be released until late January, but there is already talk of likely volumes. He said: “I am hearing comments like ‘Hawkes Bay has a large crop of large Braeburn’ and ‘there is a full crop around the Nelson region’. This indicates we could be up around the 15.5m-16m tray-carton equivalent mark.”