Right now it is far too early to speculate on the prospects for South African citrus this year, but there are some worrying signs for the country’s growers. Increasing costs of production and shipping, as well as restrictive practices by the European Union, may turn the season into a nightmare.

Despite the fact that the first satsumas will be shipped within the next two weeks, growers are only now meeting to determine their first crop estimate for the season. They do this via a series of focus group meetings which will produce the final forecast. However, it is expected that the total crop will again be set around the 100 million mark. It seems as if the total crop has now settled around this figure and that there is every likelihood of further growth in future.

It is, however, the cost increases that will dramatically influence on-farm and logistics costs this season and which are worrying producers. “At the recent Southern Hemisphere Association of Fresh Fruit Exporters (SHAFFE) meeting in Berlin, country presentations were dominated by this theme,” says the South African Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA) executive Justin Chadwick. “Increased costs are making it more difficult to be profitable in the Southern Hemisphere export citrus game.

“We have presented the anticipated price increases for citrus to growers on our roadshows and we must repeat that the economics of growing and exporting citrus fruit from southern Africa is not looking good,” he warns.

According to Chadwick, the producer price index, which is largely influenced by electricity and fuel prices, has increased by 40 per cent since 2008. The recent worker agreements in South Africa will push minimum wages up by 50 per cent. “The reality is that we have now moved from cheap unskilled labour to expensive unskilled labour. They will be moving to expensive skilled labour, but this will take some time and investment in training and human capital development.”

SHAFFE also recently highlighted deep concern about the announcement by several shipping companies to increase freight rates as of 1 January 2013. “While acknowledging that commercial issues need to be negotiated and agreed on at company level, a collective perspective shows the impact the increased rates will have on the fresh produce business,” says the SHAFFE statement.

SHAFFE members are exporting 8.7m tonnes of fresh fruits annually, of which the vast majority is by seafreight. The organisation says that if increases of up to 30 per cent in seafreight are passed back to the various industries in the Southern Hemisphere, it will add about $650m (£430m) to the cost chain. A carton of citrus will have to increase by 10 per cent in price in order to absorb this increase.

Of even greater worry to South African citrus growers is the impact that EU decisions on citrus black spot (CBS) will have on the industry. “We have discussed this subject intensely with trading partners and the response varies from one group saying how can we help to others who say that it is not their problem,” says Chadwick. He adds the reaction of the second group is not very helpful and compares the attitude to a tortoise retreating into its shell, hoping that the problem will go away.

He says leading CBS scientists in South Africa and the USA have concluded that the fruit is not a pathway to transporting CBS from one country to another, and that the EU member states have climatic conditions unsuitable for the establishing of CBS. “One would hope that the EU authorities question their reliance on the poor science produced by EFSA,” Chadwick says. “Much as we shake our heads and gnash our teeth at the lack of scientific expertise within EFSA, we have an immediate issue of meeting the EU’s unjust requirements.”

While South African growers are grappling with these issues, there is also still a keen interest in the country about the resolution of the plant breeders’ rights (PBR) for the late mandarin Nadorcott. FPJ has previously reported in detail about the challenge to the PBR from certain sectors of the South African industry.

CitroGold spokesperson Brian Offer says the Registrar of Plant Breeders’ Rights in South Africa will soon hold a second hearing which will provide more information. “The registrar has to decide whether she will uphold the PBR or whether she will take steps to remove or lift it. In case she does move to lift the PBR, we will appeal,” says Offer. Meanwhile the France-based Nadorcott Protection Company (NPC) has challenged certain statements made before by those who argue for the lifting of the PBR. “It should be noted that the ‘seedless’ characteristic of Tango (a cultivar developed in the USA from W Murcott, which is another name for what is commonly referred to as Nadorcott) has still to be proven, as well as its stability and uniformity,” says Mohamed Bengiga, MD of the NPC.

He says Nadorcott remains the number-one mandarin variety and if it were to become freely available for plantings in South Africa, then this would strongly jeopardise the proposed value of Tango to South African growers.

The Nadorcott growers have, over the past 10 years, made extra profit thanks to the exceptional qualities of Nadorcott. And even if the Nadorcott PBR title were to be declared invalid, they would retain the advantage of being able to export Nadorcott fruit to the markets where Nadorcott is protected, whereas such an outlet possibility would continue to be forbidden to new growers of a ‘free’ Nadorcott variety in South Africa.

Referring to Tango, Bengiga says Tango reproduces the essential characteristics of Nadorcott and because of its breeding method – irradiation of a bud of Nadorcott – it remains an Essentially Derived Variety of Nadorcott. “It will require the consent of the Nadorcott owner for being marketed even if the alleged ‘distinguishing’ seedless characteristic is proven.

“Unless an agreement is reached between the owners of the two varieties, the NPC will oppose Tango commercialisation in countries where Nadorcott is protected.”

The fight for the Nardorcott PBR is far from over and will continue to frustrate growers who in the past have been denied access to the variety but still want to plant it. It’s not the owners of Nadorcott that are restricting access, but the growers who originally became part of the grower club that controlled the destiny of the variety. —